Is ISIS reorganizing and intensifying its operations in Iraq?

Shaimaa Yahya

With the increase of ISIS operations in Iraq despite intense security strikes pursuing the terrorist organization, some observers speculate that the organization’s return comes with American support out of Washington’s desire to prolong its military presence in Iraq by encouraging operations in the region. Does this indicate an upcoming return of the organization, or are these tricks to keep US forces in Iraq?

ISIS has carried out several operations since its fall after the battle of Baghouz in 2017, most recently in Iraq’s Salahuddin Governorate, in which 11 people from the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) were killed, raising suspicions about the return of ISIS activity, especially after the killing of its former leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and the confusion that then occurred within the organization, in addition to the emergence of the Covid-19 corona virus pandemic.

The conflict between the United States and Iran, especially after the killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani on January 3, provided an opportunity that the organization seized in its favor, especially in light of US President Donald Trump’s directives to restructure the US forces and withdraw the international coalition from the front lines of operations In Mosul, Kirkuk and a number of other regions, while most US forces were redeployed to a smaller number of Iraqi bases in order to prevent the recurrence of attacks by Iraqi armed factions supporting Iran.

According to the European Center for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, ISIS has claimed responsibility for more than 2,000 attacks in Iraq and Syria since its collapse in Baghouz until March 19, 2020, including 1,143 terrorist attacks in Iraq. US and UN intelligence reports estimate that there are about 11,000 ISIS elements spread throughout Iraq. Diyala Governorate has witnessed 452 attacks, Kirkuk 171 attacks, Baghdad 146 attacks, Nineveh 138 attacks, Anbar 133 attacks, Salahuddin 71 attacks, and Babylon 32 attacks.

New strategy

Dr. Tarek Fahmy, a professor of political science at Cairo University, told the Reference that the issue is not whether or not the US administration wants the organization to remain, because ISIS has already made many changes in its thinking, especially after its latest operation in Salahuddin, which came as part of a series of attacks by the organization in the eastern and southern areas of the governorate, meaning they are now attacking more than just the PMF. There has been an expansion of operations and the targeting of new sites even in the wake of air strikes targeting ISIS locations, demonstrating that the organization has largely reorganized itself.

ISIS is taking advantage of less stable areas to launch its attacks, Fahmy said, adding this is a critical stage that must be paid attention to first, regardless of the PMF carrying out other operations. However, there are still many ISIS elements in Iraq at this time, which will definitely have extended risks in the coming period.

US position

Fahmy believes that the position of the United States is now in the stage of “reaction”. In addition, the Americans do not have as many pressures as some think, because this matter is related to the organization’s large escalation being undertaken at this time, and this is where the danger lies. If the organization reconstitutes itself again, it will exhaust the PMF and the United States, leading to dangerous repercussions in the coming period.

The appointment of Prime Minister-designate Mustafa al-Kazemi to intensify his attacks and reactions against the organization will lead to the stage of “breaking bones”, which will have serious repercussions in the coming period, Fahmy said, adding that the US administration does not have many cards to deal with the organization, which has carried out in excess of 150 terrorist operations. These are dangerous indications of the reorganization of ISIS into mobile groups, and the United States must crystallize its activity in one way or another.

Fahmy pointed out that ISIS has taken advantage of the corona pandemic and the political struggle in Iraq to resume its activity and expand again as it looks for a new leadership and exploits the deteriorating political conditions in Iraq that threaten stability.

Triangle of death

It is expected that the Desert Lions operation to pursue ISIS elements in the Anbar region will have negative repercussions for the organization, especially as the operation includes searching areas up to the Iraqi border areas. PMF forces located west of Anbar and the local tribes are also participating with the Iraqi axis of support.

The operation confirms that the Iraqi government understands the risks of ISIS at this time. The process of taking out ISIS elements has been largely carried out, but the danger lies in the governorates of Salahuddin, Kirkuk and Diyala, especially in the region known as the “Triangle of Death”, which is considered one of the most dangerous areas, are hit-and-run operations between ISIS elements and the Iraqi government are frequent, but in general the organization has recalibrated its use of sleeper cells.