From the Gulf to Europe: Iran’s options to respond to killing of Qassem Soleimani

Ali Rajab

The presidency of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, on Friday 3 January 2020, formed for the first time a meeting of the National Security Council, after the killing of the Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, a strategic importance and an indication of the size of the Iranian loss as well as the size of the Iranian response expected by the Revolutionary Guards and the militias loyal to him in the region against American interests or the Gulf states allied with Washington.

Observers believe that the options of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard remain limited, especially as the Iranian economy is on the verge of collapse, and any open war with the United States will be disastrous.

The Islamic Movements Gateway portal monitors many of the expected targets that could be targeted by Iran in response to the assassination of the architect of these operations and influence in the Middle East, the former commander of the Quds Force, Soleimani.

The Gulf

American bases and interests in the Gulf will be one of the most prominent Iranian targets in response and retaliation for the killing of Soleimani.

The United States of America has military forces and bases in the Gulf states, the most prominent of which are the many bases in Qatar and the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.

Likewise, the process of targeting oil ships in the Persian Gulf, and targeting sensitive oil installations, is a primary goal in the American targets, and Saudi Aramco’s facilities may be an Iranian target in response to Soleimani’s killing.

Iraq and Syria

American interests, companies, and forces in Iraq and Syria may be the target of the Revolutionary Guards and the militias loyal to them, depending on the ability of the militias and the Revolutionary Guards to implement and define painful and prominent US goals that constitute a significant response by supporters of the Iranian regime.

The Eurasia consultancy had expected, on Friday, that the Iranian response would be in the form of attacks against American bases in Iraq by loyal militias, in addition to provocations against ships in the Gulf, and military operations in the world that are difficult to determine their source.

Yemen

The threat of international navigation and targeting of oil ships in the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman and Bab al-Mandab, through the Houthi militia or the Revolutionary Guards cells in the Horn of Africa, is one of the most prominent Iranian options in response to the killing of Soleimani.

Lebanon

One of the most prominent Iranian options in response to the killing of Soleimani by targeting American interests in Lebanon is Iran, which enjoys the Lebanese Hezbollah control and significant influence over the state and institutions in Lebanon.

Israel

Israel may be a clear target of the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian militias in Syria, as well as the Palestinian factions in Gaza, through a military escalation against Israel by targeting it with missiles and suicide operations.

Afghanistan

Afghanistan, with experiencing unstable security conditions, and Iran with significant influence inside the Afghani, as well as supporting militias and armed groups, are also among the most prominent unexpected Iranian options to target American forces and interests in Afghanistan.

Nigeria and West Africa

It is not excluded that West Africa and Nigeria, where Iran and Hezbollah enjoy a significant influence in targeting American interests, are one of the most prominent Iranian options in response to the killing of Soleimani.

The Islamist movement, led by detainee Ibrahim Zakzaki, is Iran’s most prominent ally in Nigeria, as well as rebel groups in West Africa and al-Qaeda.

Last June, the British newspaper Telegraph quoted Western officials as an active presence of the “Unit 400” of the Quds Force, establishing Iranian networks to attack American and European targets, such as embassies, foreign military bases and foreign employees.

Last June, the arrest of Ugandan security forces of the Lebanese Hezbollah operative, Hussein Mahmoud Yassin, sounded a warning bell about the party’s activity and Iran inside the brown continent, which confirms the existence of a wide network of Revolutionary Guard agents in the region.

Europe

Iran has, according to numerous intelligence reports, cells in the European Union, and these cells constitute one of the most prominent Iranian tools and options in response to the killing of Soleimani.

In July 2019, British intelligence expected that Iran, through its mercenaries, would launch terrorist attacks in London and a number of European capitals.

The famous Daily Telegraph newspaper quoted the British Intelligence agency as saying that Iran “organized and financed sleeper terrorist cells throughout Europe, including the United Kingdom, and could give them the green light in response to a conflict in the Gulf.”