Consequences of Qatar rapprochement with Iran and Turkey on US-Gulf relations

Cairo – A new analysis by Majid Rafizadeh, President of the International American Council and board member of the US-Middle East Chamber of Business and Commerce and Harvard IR, explores the consequences of Doha’s recent rapprochement with Turkey and Iran on Gulf cooperation council, United states, and US-Gulf relations.

Qatar’s rapprochement with Turkey and Iran can have significant consequences on the Gulf Cooperation Council, the United States and US-Gulf relations.

Doha is deepening its ties with Tehran and Ankara amidst the Qatar crisis, which is posing critical challenges to the national security interests of the US and Gulf states. In 2016, tensions existed between Qatar and Iran as Doha recalled its ambassadors from Tehran. But after seven countries including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Maldives, cut ties with Doha- because of Qatar’s financing and support for terrorism, and its backing for the Iranian government and Islamist groups, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, Doha immediately further shifted its policies towards the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The so-called GCC4+1 made thirteen requests. One of the major ones was that Qatar should break its military ties with the Iranian government because of Tehran’s increasingly expansionist and interventionist policies. Nevertheless, Qatar ignored its supposed allies and turned its back on the other GCC states; instead, Doha began strengthening its relations with Iran, re-accrediting its ambassador to Tehran with the instruction “to strengthen bilateral relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran in all fields”

Qatar has signaled, through its actions, that it is not committed to the GCC’s joint security. Such political opportunism will only further inflame tensions in the region and ratchet up regional instability. This divergence from GCC unity is exacerbated by Doha’s willingness to attract and host any state or non-state actor which poses a threat to the national security interests of other GCC states.

Iran has reciprocated with speed, immediately increasing trade between the two countries. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has also publicly voiced full support for Doha; in a phone call with the Emir of Qatar, Rouhani offered to open Iran’s air, ground and sea space to Doha with immediate effect.

Qatar’s unwillingness to cooperate with its supposed allies in the GCC is also evidenced in its attemps to bring Turkey closer to Doha. Qatar has eased the rule on Turkey’s exports to Qatar, which has now increased by roughly 84 percent. Doha further lured Turkey into its sphere by allowing it set up a military base in Qatar, which is Turkey’s first military base in the Arab world.

On several fronts the Qatar crisis and the Qatar-Iran-Turkey alliance is inflicting damage on the national security interests of the US, GCC states and overall US-Gulf relations.

First of all, for the Iranian government, the Qatar crisis is a timely distraction to its military operations and ballistic missile activities in the region. Iran has long been concerned that a united Arab coalition, working alongside the new US administration, would block Iranian ambitions. For Iran, the Qatar crisis is a perfect opportunity to drive a wedge between the GCC, its US ally, and thus undermine international efforts to keep Iran on the straight and narrow. Qatar’s rapprochement with Iran is also giving legitimacy and leverage to Tehran’s ruling clerics; bringing it further out of isolation, and tipping the balance of power in favor of Shia Iran and its proxies. Iran’s Shia militias across the region, for whom one of their top missions is to scuttle US and Sunni governments’ foreign policies, are further empowered by Iran growth.

More fundamentally, to appease Iran, Qatar is likely to further shift its policies in the Syrian conflict, and also back Iran’s proxies such as Hezbollah. This would be a significant blow to US-Gulf efforts to resolve the conflict in Syria and battle extremist groups in the region.

It is worth noting that the US has used Qatar as major hub for the US-led air campaign against the Islamic State in Damascus and Baghdad. But as Qatar shifts closer to Turkey and Iran, the Qatar crisis could endanger the U.S. Central Command’s airbase in Doha, which monitors most crucial overseas US airbases in approximately 20 nations in the region including in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan.

Qatar’s policies towards Turkey are also jeopardizing regional stability. These policies are creating tensions between Turkey and the US, and Turkey and its historically close allies in the GCC. The longer the crisis goes on, the more Ankara’s geopolitical and economic ties with other Arab states and Washington will worsen. The Qatar-Iran-Turkey alliance may also push Turkey to shift its policies towards backing the Syrian rebel groups in an attempt to appease Iran, further undermining international efforts to resolve the long-running Syrian civil war.