Are Iranian missiles a serious threat to the West?

By Ali Atef

The eight-year war (1980-1988) between Iraq and Iran and its results had the greatest impact on the policies of Iran’s the then-new theocratic regime both internally and externally. There is hardly any speech by any of Iran’s military officials that mentions the war or its consequences.

In fact, the weakness of Iran’s military capabilities at the time, especially the air force, compelled Tehran to succumb to UN Security Council Resolution No. 598 on a ceasefire between the two sides. The resolution was a strong blow to the ambitions of Khomeini’s regime which wanted to expand at the expense of Iran’s neighbors.

Here, the new Iranian regime realized that it would not be able to survive or embark on its regional or international expansion, without a strong military, especially a strong air force, long-range missiles being an important component of this force.

The new regime began to acquire and develop missile capabilities during the war with Iraq and after it. Iran’s missiles are today at the center of debates in the West where questions are asked about Iran’s missile capabilities and whether the Islamic Republic’s missiles are a real threat.

Europeans are asking about whether these missiles constitute a serious military threat to their continent.

Iran’s most important missiles and their ranges

Iran started launching its missile program when it came short of keeping up with Iraq’s air force during the First Gulf War. Iran could not buy the necessary spare parts for its air force from countries like Libya, Syria, North Korea, China and Russia either, which was why it started manufacturing these spare parts locally.

In 1988, Iran experimented the Missch-160 missile which had a range of 160 kilometers. This was followed by several other experiments with the aim of developing ballistic missiles with high precision and a long range.

In January 1998, Iran succeeded in developing a Scud-B missile and called it “Shahab-3”. This missile had a range of 1,300 kilometers. In December 2004, Iran reportedly tried to produce different missiles with longer ranges that could carry chemical and nuclear warheads.  The missiles were given names, such as “Ghadr”, “Shahab 4” and “Earthquake 2”.

In November 2007, Iran said it had launched a new missile called “Ashura” with a total range of 2,000 kilometers. A year later, it launched another missile by the name “Sejail.”

During negotiations on Iran’s nuclear file in March 2015, the Iranian Ministry of Defense announced the launch of a new missile called “Sumar”. This missile had a range between 2,500 and 3,000 kilometers.

Iran’s last missile test was conducted in September 2017, when the Islamic Republic unveiled a new missile called “Khorramshahr” with a range up to 2,000 kilometers.

The Central Intelligence Agency said in one of its reports that Iran planned to develop a Shahab-4 missile with a range between 2,000 and 3,000 kilometers. According to some Israeli reports, Tehran also plans to develop a missile called “Shahab-5 Bamdi”. This missile could have a range of 5,000 kilometers, the most serious of all.

Motives behind Iran’s missile program

The First Gulf War formed the first motivation for Iran to develop short, medium, and long-range missiles. The war had a great impact on Iran’s military strategies. The need for the missile program started to become more urgent after the war for a number of reasons.

Internal reasons

• A traditional desire for missile deterrence

As a result of its policies, the Iranian regime always feels under the threat of downfall or attack by regional or international powers, especially the United States and Israel. This is why it seeks to own and develop various types of ballistic missiles to achieve what is known as “missile deterrence”. Iran always boasts of the ability of its missiles to strike at the heart of Israel.

• Linking the missile file to the nuclear file

From a scientific and practical viewpoint, nuclear capabilities need to have long-range missiles to have an impact. A nuclear state without long-range missiles cannot be worrying to anybody beyond its borders. Without long-range missiles, Iran’s nuclear capabilities are only fit for national pride and consumption. Iran’s agreement with the world’s major powers on July 14, 2014 does not require the Islamic Republic to terminate its nuclear activities.

• A way out of internal crises

The Iranian regime has several political and economic crises at home. Iran’s political system does tolerate either pluralism or difference. Indeed, Iran’s top political figure, the Supreme Leader, is not elected by the people, but by a religious body, namely the Council of Experts.

In economic terms, the official unemployment rate has reached 12%. In some provinces, the rate is 60%, according to government statistics. Together with rampant poverty, this opens the door for a large number of problems.

The regime tries to deflect public attention from these internal problems by picking up fights with West. When debates about the nuclear file calmed down, there appeared the furor over the missile file to deflect attention from these domestic problems even more.

External factors

• Assistance by some international powers

Some international powers support Iran’s missile program by providing the Iranians with the necessary materials. North Korea, for example, was the earliest country to offer support in this regard. In 1987, the Asian state gave Iran over 100 Scud-B Scud missiles. Some individuals and agencies also reached their hands out to the Iranians to assist them take their missile program steps forward.

• International failure

The international community, namely the United Nations and international and regional powers, has not done enough to prevent Iran’s missile and nuclear programs from threatening the Middle East and the rest of the world. It will take more than just economic sanctions to prevent the Iranian regime from maintaining this threat.

• Nuclear deal of 2015

The signing of the deal led to the unfreezing of billions of dollars of Iranian funds. These unfrozen funds were added to revenues from exports after the gradual lifting of Western sanctions. The agreement did not, however, extinguish Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Iran used unfrozen funds in developing its missile program even further and increasing its interference in other countries in the region. This is why it is fair to claim that the nuclear agreement has blown new life into the Iranian missile program.

3 – Nature of threat Iran’s missile program poses to Europe

Mutual economic interests characterize relations between European states, on one hand, and Iran, on the other. Unlike Washington, European countries make efforts to preserve the nuclear agreement and establish relations with Iran with their eyes fixed on the Iranian market. This is why they are so keen on Iran’s stability. Inter-Iranian tensions manifesting themselves on European soil, such as the assassination of Kurdish dissidents at the Mykonos restaurant in Berlin, Germany, in 1992, result in the escalation of Iranian-European tensions.  The fatwa Ayatollah Khomeini issued against Salman Rushdie, the author of the Satanic Verses, in February 1989 was also another reason for additional tension between Iran and Europe. Statements by Iranian leaders against Israel foment this tension. Nonetheless, Iran’s nuclear and missile programs remain to be the most explosive issue in relations between the two sides.

The views of both Europe and the US on Iran sometimes diverge. However, the same views always converge when it comes to the Islamic Republic’s missile program. Europe tries to bring about a rapprochement with Iran and even create a common ground between Tehran and Washington. Nevertheless, the same continent is very concerned about Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities.

Iran says European countries stood by Iraq during its war with the Arab state. Iran accuses Britain of dividing its territory at the turn of the 20th Century. It says Britain also partnered in the overthrow of the government of Iranian Prime Minister, Mohammad Mosaddeqh in 1953. All these tensions rule out the possibility of calm in relations between Iran and Europe in the future, especially so long as the current Iranian regime is in place. This also makes Iran’s missile program more dangerous for Europe.

– Can Iran’s missiles reach Europe?

In the light of as available information, the maximum range of Iranian missiles is 3,000 kilometers. The Sumar missile, the most dangerous of Iranian missiles, has a range of 2000-3000 kilometers. This missile is also capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Along with a number of other medium and long-range missiles mentioned above, this missile can cross Iran’s borders.

If we take the range of these missiles – up to 3,000 kilometers – we find that these missiles can reach southern and eastern European countries, such as Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Italy, and Austria. These countries have borders with Germany. They are also a bit far from France, Switzerland, Serbia, Poland and the Czech Republic. Nevertheless, the Iranian missiles can reach Germany and the French city of Strasbourg, which is only 3,000 kilometers away from Iran’s northwestern province of West Azerbaijan.

More dangerous still, according to American and Israeli intelligence reports, Iran tries to develop missiles with ranges between 3,000 and 5,000 kilometers (Shahab-4, 5, and10). These missiles can cover the whole of Europe. This will make Iran’s missiles a serious threat to the European continent.

How effective is the US missile shield at present?

The shield always comes to mind in the context of the threats Iran’s missile program poses to Europe. Despite the importance of the American shield, it is important to note that the project is not completed yet. It will be completed over four stages. The first includes the deployment of an American radar system in Turkey and the deployment of a naval missile shield system in the Mediterranean. The second includes the deployment of the IGBS anti-missile missiles in Romania. The third stage includes the expansion of the missile shield to Poland, and then the deployment of SAM-3-2 anti-missile missiles to deter Iranian missiles. This US missile shield can so far only attack non-sophisticated ballistic missiles. All this renders the US missile defense system in Europe ineffective at present.

Technical problems within Iran’s ballistic missile program

The Iranian missiles have a number of technical problems, including their ability to carry small warheads only. The missiles are inaccurate when it comes to targets, because they are not supplied with modern guidance systems. This is why the Iranians are trying to make use of the GPS system. The solid fuel used in powering the missiles also takes longer to produce than the traditional liquid fuel. It should also be noted that Iran’s missiles do not have a strong air cover, given the country’s long air capabilities.

Iran works to avoid these technical problems by either importing missiles from North Korea or developing solutions locally. The accuracy of the missiles as an issue does not diminish the strategic and biological threat the Iranian missiles pose to Europe. The air cover problem can also be offset by the short range capabilities and modernity of the missiles.

Based on the above, it can be concluded that Iran’s missile program poses serious threats to Europe at present, even as the scope of the missiles has not reached some western or northern European countries yet. Nonetheless, Iran can develop missiles with the ranges needed to threaten the whole of Europe in the future. It can also provide these missiles with more sophisticated guidance systems.

4 – European action needed to counter Iran’s missile threat

The threat posed to Europe’s security by Iran’s missile program makes it necessary for European states to take some effective measures, which can include the following:

– Imposing more effective sanctions on Iran’s missile program. The sanctions should produce results more effective than those achieved by sanctions in the case of Iran’s nuclear program.

– Abolishing the nuclear agreement which allowed Iran to obtain huge funds it used in financing its belligerent policies both internally and externally.

– Preventing Iran from obtaining the materials necessary for the missile program from countries like North Korea. This will deprive Iran of an important source of supplies for the missile industry.

– Finding common ground with both Russian and Chinese, key players in the Asian continent and the world. These two countries also have special relations with Iran. Compatibility with these two countries will put pressure, not only on the Iranian missile program, but also on the Iranian regime itself.