6 scenarios for “Afrin” battle sets a new road map for the conflict in Syria in 2018

By: Mustafa Amin

The battle of “Afrin” is a milestone in the struggle for influence within Syria between all the regional and international parties. Therefore, the scenarios of the battle and beyond are a lot, which makes it a new roadmap for the conflict in Syria in 2018.

Afrin has an important strategic statue for Turkey, which began to encircle it, when it entered Idlib, and established observation points in the southern section, which is the point of intersection between Idlib and Afrin.

Turkey established observation points to monitor the implementation of the cease-fire in the city on one hand, and surround the south of Afrin and make it under control on the other hand, which has contributed significantly to prevent targeting PKK elements for the Turkish forces stationed there.

The Turkish strategy to cordon off the city by the Turkish armed forces is the first stage in the process that yielded positive results, stressing that the second phase of the operation will directly target of PYD and YPG sites.

Which puts us in front of several scenarios are as follows:

1 – The first Scenario: The Turkish armed forces, which ended the encirclement phase, enter Afrin by the artillery and to carry out air attacks from the border areas nearby. This is the most radical and effective solution in the confrontation with PYD and YPG. However, it is necessary to take into account the possibility of serious confrontations due to the difference topography (nature of the topography) of Afrin. But it is still possible to target the Afrin through strategic strikes through Idlib.

However, the military moves may be somewhat constrained, especially since the Russian position Still unknown, and still depends on the bilateral talks that will take place between Moscow and Ankara. ”

2- The second scenario is weakening Afrin, which is already surrounded, by long-range artillery targeting. Airplanes also can carry out aerial attacks without the need to cross the border into Syria. This is a risk-free option. Turkey may be after that cooperate with the forces of Euphrates from the west of Mara to establish a point of contact between Aleppo and Idlib, and this may need to hold talks with Iran because Nubl and Zahra are under its control.

3 – The third scenario: the Kurdish organization may resort immediately to the regime after defeat, as it did in previous times, and therefore may leave Afrin to the control of the Syrian regime because the Kurdish organization cannot face Turkey relying solely on its potential.

4 – The fourth scenario: The victory of Turkey in the operation is a preemptive strike of the Kurdish ambitions to reach the Mediterranean from Afrin towards Idlib under the pretext of fighting ” Fatah al-Sham,” after the battle of Raqqa.

Despite the alliance of Moscow with the Kurdish protection units in several battles in Syria, Russia is well aware that these units are not out of the American umbrella, so it seems that the vision of Moscow intersect with Ankara in the danger of the survival of a Kurdish enclave in the north of Aleppo, specifically Afrin, because it’s nearing from the Syrian coast, and therefore near from “Hameimim” Russian military base.

For Russia, any Kurdish approach from that region Means a US approach to its most vital areas of influence in Syria, which may push Moscow to support the Turkish military action in that region dispels any future prospect of Kurdish expansion to the coast, especially after the statement of a number of leaders of the Democratic Union Party about their intention to reach the Syrian coast through Idlib under the pretext of fighting Front “Fatah al-Sham” after defeat daesh.

5 – the fifth Scenario: The control of the Turkish forces and the Free Syrian Army groups on those areas in the event of success of the operation; an opportunity to connect the countryside of Aleppo with Idlib according to (Russian Turkish Iranian) understandings, which represent a detail that may be linked to the joint Ankara plan with Moscow on Idlib and the Turkish-Russian consensus on the monopoly of Idlib front with, “Fatah al-Sham” in the framework of the war of terrorism, as an alternative to the exclusion of Turkey from the war of daesh in Raqqa and Deir al-Zour, and to block the attempts of the forces of “Democratic Syria” to persuade the United States to enter Idlib battle with alnosra front after defeat daesh.

6- the six Scenario: Moscow is benefiting from the escalation of tension around Afrin between Turkey and the democratic forces because it serves its interests by playing on the dispute between the two parties to impose Manbij scenario that will be a way out of the parties from a bloody confrontation will not be easy for them, so they aim to put the city under the regime forces control, which would represent the free restoration of a large area of land in the north of Syria for the regime.

From the above, we can confirm that the battle of Afrin will be a milestone in the struggle for influence within Syria among all the regional and international parties and that the scenarios of the Turkish battle and the resulting repercussions will constitute a new roadmap for the conflict in the north of Syria among all the regional and international parties involved in the quagmire Syrian for 7 years.