Iraqi government formation, an exit from obedience to Iran

Mohamed Shaath

Iran is trying to maintain its influence in Iraq by all means, especially after indicators confirming the decline of this influence recently. The most important indicators are the popular anger for Iranian intervention in the Iraqi decision making, in addition to the decline of popular confidence in the Iraqi entities loyal to Tehran. This push the Mullahs’ regime to stick to it presence in the Iraqi territories, which it sees as an extension of its security.

Forming the Iraqi government is at the top of Iran’s priorities, especially that the blocks representing the next government will show the size of Iranian influence in Iraqi territory during the next phase.

Tehran has shown interest in this by sending the commander of the Quds Force Qasim Soleimani; to intervene in the negotiations to form the Iraqi government, in addition to deliberately exporting crises to the Iraqi factions.

Iran seeks to reshape political alliances in Iraq according to its agenda. This quest is opposing the direction of Adel Abdul Mahdi, who is in charge of forming a new Iraqi government, which could make Tehran lose control on Iraq, and thus Iraqis exit from obedience to Iran.

Iraqi political analyst, Anmar Al-Droubi, said that Adel Abdul Mahdi, charged with forming the new Iraqi government, is trying to get out of the mantle of sectarian quotas – imposed by Tehran since 2003 to ensure the continued dominance on the Iraqi political decision. So, Tehran will try by all means to block the policy pursued by Abdul Mahdi, which is different from its agenda.
Al-Droubi pointed out that Abdul Mahdi is trying to distance himself from political parties and blocs, which were and still are the main reasons for the collapse of the Iraqi political system. He, therefore, seeks to select ministers (according to the principle of technocrats) but he is under big pressures from parties and politicians who are trying to undermine his work by imposing specific candidates from within their parties and political blocs.

The Iraqi political analyst said that the prime minister, in charge of forming the new Iraqi government, is subjected to attempts by political forces who are leading the political scene in Iraq, to impose their will. He pointed out that the increasing pressures may push Abdul Mahdi to resign from the post of prime minister, especially when he still have a lot of issues need to be solved.

Researcher on the Iranian issue, Osama al-Hatimi, said that Abdul Mahdi, is not hostile to Iran; but, his loyalty to Tehran is not equal to that of Faleh al-Fayyad, whom Iran wanted him to take over the Prime Minister position.

There are other considerations regarding Iran’s situation from Abdul Mahdi’s government; Firstly, all political parties agree on the man. Secondly, the Iraqi Shiite authority led by Ali al-Sistani, did not show any objection on the man, which means the possibility of passing what Iran wants if it succeeded in attracting the new Prime Minister towards it.

Al-Hatimi told Al-Margie, that Iran still so far – and despite the escalation of the popular protest in southern Iraq against it during the past months – has significant influence in Iraq; as most political parties in Iraq, which dominate many economic and investment institutions, are subjected to Iran. Also, dozens of Shiite armed militias follow Iran and they practice terrorism on anyone who criticizes Iran’s role.

He added that Iran has succeeded in pushing Iraq to rely on the Iranian state to provide the basic needs of its people, like water and electricity, especially in the south of Iraq. This was shown during the most recent rumors published by Iranian news agencies revealing Iranian regime’s intention to cut about 7 billion cubic meters of water from Iraq, which threatens the future development in southern Iraq.

Al-Hatimi also said that despite the fact that the deputy Iranian ambassador in Iraq denied these rumors, the reality confirms that Tehran is doing this already, and that the leak of such reports may be a significant message directed by Iran to Abdul Mahdi that it can involve him in situations which are hard to deal with without relying on it.