Scenarios for the future of South Yemen

Ali Ragab

In the framework of the map of the American solution, and the assertions of the leaders of the “Southern Yemeni Transitional Council” on the right to self-determination, the statements of US Defense Secretary James Matisse gave southerners autonomy. On the other hand, the Yemeni government affirmed the unity of the state; to all scenarios, in light of the continuation of the war to defeat the Huthi from the areas controlled by them, especially the areas of «Hudaydah and Sana’a».

Deputy Chairman of the Southern Transitional Council, «Hani Ben Brik», confirmed that the Transitional Council will not compromise by any means the southern issue, and the right to restore its state.

“The unity of Yemen in the summer of 1994 failed, as did the Egyptian-Syrian Unity 1961, but the unity in Yemen was imposed by force, after its failure. We ask to disengage with the Arab Republic of Yemen in the north ». Ben Brik said in remarks to the program “Without Limitations,” which appeared Sunday evening on the BBC Arabic channel.

He added that what happened in the summer of 1994 is an occupation according to all international norms and laws. Stressing that unity with the north failed, and the best for the peace of the region is the state of the south, and another one in the north, neighboring in peace.

At the time the US Secretary of Defense proposed giving the southerners autonomy, the Stratfor website in December 2017 suggested that southern separatists would gain more autonomy.

In February 2014, the Yemeni Committee charged with the task of identifying the regions in the Yemeni federal state, which was to be established in the national dialogue. Adopted a formula from 6 provinces, 2 in the south and 4 in the north, according to the Saba news agency.

The provinces of South Yemen, included  the first region «Hadramout» and capital city of Mukalla,  the areas of «skilled, and Hadramout, and Shabwa, and Socotra».

The second is the region of Saba and its capital, Saba. It includes the regions of Al Jawf, Marib and Al Baida. The third is Aden and its capital, Aden, which includes the regions of Aden, Abyan, Lahj and Al Dale.

And the fourth is the region of Jund, whose capital is Taiz, which includes Taiz, Ibb, and the fifth region of Azal. Its capital is Sana’a. It includes Sa’ada, Sana’a, Amran and Dhamar. The sixth is Tuhama and its capital is Hodeidah. , And Mahweet, and argument ».

However, the Southern Transitional Council rejected the federal draft of Yemen and the six provinces, demanding a return to pre-1990.

Yemeni researcher, Mohammed Taher said: The future of Yemen in general, and the South in particular depends on the future of conflict and power that governs the land, and the survival or defeat of the Houthis.

Tahir added in a statement to El-Marga’a that the battles of Hodeidah and defeat Houthi from power in Sanaa and the victory of the Yemeni army, will support the vision of President Abdurbo Mansour Hadi, the achievement of the federal Yemen, but the survival of the Houthis will go to Yemen to partition.

He added that the results of the military operations will determine the future, and any talk about self-rule or separation is an early talk, and defeat al-Huthi is what will determine the shape of the state in Yemen.