Erdogan in the range of Washington fire; zeoring Iranian oil exports puts Turkey in a dilemma

Trump’s decision forces Turkey to resort to “hard alternative”, pressuring change of foreign policy

Mohammed Shaat

The announcement by the administration of US President Donald Trump that Iran’s oil exports had been scrapped and the exemptions granted to some countries importing oil from Iran early next month were not only a threat to the mullahs’ regime, but the new US action was a double blow to Iran and Turkey. Ankara’s oil from Tehran reaches 25% of the value of Turkey’s oil imports.

Because of the negative impact of Trump’s decision on Turkey, the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced its rejection of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s statement that President Trump had decided to stop giving any extension to the countries that granted these exemptions because market conditions permit. “When the president withdrew from the nuclear agreement with Iran, he announced that he would exert the utmost pressure on this rogue regime to make it a natural regime,” he said.

Turkish concern

“Turkey is critical of the United States decision to end the exemptions from the oil sanctions imposed on Iran, which will not serve peace and stability in the region,” the Turkish foreign ministry said in response to the report.

In the context of the Turkish reaction, Turkish Foreign Minister Mouloud Javishoglu wrote on Twitter: “Let us not accept unilateral sanctions and impose dictates on how to build our relationship with our neighbors.” In response to Pompeo’s remarks: “The exemptions granted to a number of countries will cease. Each country will stop this import because it is not worth the risk and because it will expose itself to sanctions.”

The Turkish position comes in the context of the trend towards closer relations with Iran and the conclusion of new agreements with them. The last one was: Fatima Vernak, Deputy Minister of Environment and Urbanization, who discussed with the Iranian Minister of Communications Mohammad Islami ways of cooperation between the two countries in the field of environment and urbanization. “Turkey and Iran are similar in terms of the cultural and historical momentum of the two countries.”

Erdogan’s predicament

The dilemma faced by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is related to the alternative announced by US President Trump to compensate these countries after the end of the exemption.

Washington relies on Riyadh to preserve the balance of the global oil market. The White House announced that “the United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are among the world’s largest oil producers, will work to ensure that world oil markets remain adequately stocked with oil.”

Trump promised that Riyadh would work with other Opec countries “to do more than compensate” for the shortage of oil for sale at the end of the purchase of oil from Iran, where the Saudi government announced its readiness to work to keep the oil market stable.

That means that Turkey has been forced to resort to Saudi Arabia and the UAE to compensate for the amount imported from Iran, which is a new stalemate for Turkey in light of deteriorating relations with Riyadh in the recent period.

The relations between the three countries have become very tense during the recent period, especially in light of Turkey’s insistence on supporting the Iranian-Qatari destructive role in the recent period, which is naturally reflected on all aspects of cooperation between the three countries or more.

This comes in light of the escalation of these tensions, the latest of which were Turkish allegations of the arrest of two spying for the UAE.

All these introductions indicate that the decisions of the resolution put Erdogan in the way of deadlock, either to accept the use of these alternatives or be subjected to the sanctions that Washington threatened to impose. This comes especially as it benefited from the temporary exemption, and exports of Iranian crude oil since November to the end of January reached about half a million tons (485,214 tons), according to the Energy Market Regulatory Authority.