Turkey faces strategic loss with downfall of Bashir’s regime in Sudan

Ali Rajab

Change has already become a reality in Sudan with the military establishment taking sides with the Sudanese people.

The end of the rule of Sudanese president Omar Hassan al-Bashir brings an end to an era during which Islamist movements, especially the terrorist Muslim Brotherhood, manipulated the life of the Sudanese people.

The Brotherhood and other Islamist organizations are strongly linked to the International Organization of the Muslim Brotherhood and its main state sponsors Turkey and Qatar.

These Islamist movements pose danger, not only to Sudan, but also to the whole of the African continent, according to Yasser Erman, the secretary-general of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement.

He said the political change happening in Sudan would trim the power of these movements in other African states.

The same change, Erman added, would also undermine the Muslim Brotherhood as far as its presence in Sudan’s political life and political system is concerned.

“This change also causes major losses to the International Organization of the Muslim Brotherhood and its state sponsors, namely Turkey and Qatar,” Erman said in statements to the press.

He expected Bashir’s downfall to cause a change in Sudan’s relations with the two counties. This change, he said, would threaten the interests of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Turkish interests in Sudan

Relations between Turkey and Sudan improved greatly during the past two decades. This was particularly so after the Justice and Development Party reached power in Turkey in 2002.

The party drafted an aspiring plan for cooperation with Arab states, especially those with strong Muslim Brotherhood presence. The party considers the Brotherhood an important gateway into these states.

Erdogan’s administration was very keen on gaining a foothold on the Red Sea and entering the Sudanese market through economic cooperation and investments.

During Erdogan’s visit to Khartoum in December 2017, Sudan and Turkey signed 21 agreements, including one for the creation of a strategic cooperation council.

The agreements covered important areas, including agriculture and industry. Turkey expressed interest in rebuilding an Ottoman-era Sudanese port on the Red Sea.

Turkey wanted to ensure gaining presence on the Red Sea by agreeing with Sudan to control the Red Sea island of Suaken. Turkey wanted to use the island for military and intelligence purposes.

Military links

Turkey also tried to strengthen its military connections with Sudan by signing a number of agreements in this regard, including one on training and technical cooperation. The agreement came into effect in March 2013.

In mid-2014, four Turkish navy vessels arrived in Port Sudan for joint drills with the Sudanese navy. The Sudanese minister of defense also signed a number of agreements in the fields of defense and training with Turkey during his participation at a defense fair in Istanbul in 2017.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also revealed that his country had signed agreements on Red Sea security with Sudan.

Turkish losses

The downfall of the Bashir regime makes Turkey incur a huge strategic loss. This is bad in the light of the internal problems Erdogan’s administration faces. The same administration faces problems with a number of Gulf states and with Egypt.

Lebanese political analyst Nidal al-Saba’a believes that the success of the anti-Bashir uprising constitutes a successes against the infiltration of the Muslim Brotherhood into Sudan’s state institutions, including the army and the security apparatus.

“The new Sudan cannot rise unless the Brotherhood is totally uprooted from it,” al-Saba’a told The Reference. “This will constitute a strong blow to Erdogan who had hopes to control the Red Sea island of Suaken.”