European elections: Tories could come sixth, officials fear

Conservative officials fear the party could come sixth in the European elections, with their support plummeting to single digits.

Candidates running in the election said the party was “almost in denial” that the poll was happening and continued to insist they would not need to take up their seats in the European parliament, despite fading prospects for a cross-party deal with Labour that would enable Brexit to happen before 2 July.

The fears of a dismal performance have been stoked by the fact that the party plans to spend no money on candidate campaigning, will not publish a manifesto and is refusing to hold a launch.

One MEP said candidates were funding their campaigns out of their own pockets, unlike previous years when there was a central pot of funding available. They have been told they are allowed to have their own regional manifestos, but many are not bothering, and there will be no central party manifesto.

“The thinking is that if we make no effort then we will have an excuse for having done so badly. But it is seriously embarrassing,” said one MEP.

Another Conservative source said internal data showed the party could do worse than the Brexit party, Labour, the Lib Dems, Change UK and even potentially the Greens, with support at less than 10%. That would translate to only a handful of seats, down from the current 22.

A second CCHQ source said the outlook was “absolutely dire” and worse even than the public pollsters were predicting because the party was planning to put in no effort whatsoever, apart from a free mailshot.

Part of the problem is the party’s activist base, as they are not motivated to campaign for the Conservatives when Brexit has not been delivered as previously promised. Surveys suggest around three in five members are planning to vote for Nigel Farage’s Brexit party.

After a meeting with Brandon Lewis, the Conservative party chairman, earlier this week, MEP candidates were left with the impression that Theresa May would give a speech next week setting out the party’s European election message. However, a No 10 source said there were “no plans” for such an intervention.

With a dire showing predicted, May is expected to make another effort to get her withdrawal bill through the House of Commons or let MPs vote on various different options for Brexit within the next two weeks.

The prime minister’s official spokeswoman said No 10 hoped to “bring forward” the bill before Whitsun recess on 23 May – the day of the European elections. However, she will only do this if there is enough support from across the House of Commons, including Labour, to stop it being voted down at the first hurdle.

One plan under consideration is publishing the bill before the 11-day break for MPs and then allowing them to debate and vote on it after they have had time to contemplate the results of the European elections, which are likely to lead to a strong showing for Farage’s Brexit party.

One cabinet minister said there was a case for daring Labour to vote it down, as that would put the pressure back on them.

However, if the withdrawal bill were to be voted down, the prime minister would have to prorogue parliament and put forward a new Queen’s Speech, but there is no certainty that she even has support for a new programme of legislation. If a Queen’s Speech fell then it could bring down the government.

Backing from the DUP would be crucial to getting through a Queen’s Speech but they could need a new agreement involving more money for Northern Ireland to achieve that.

In a sign May is gearing up for parliamentary battles ahead, she hosted lunch for Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, Nigel Dodds, the DUP Westminster leader, and Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the chief whip, at her Chequers country residence on Thursday.

The talks involved the drive to get the prime minister’s withdrawal agreement bill through parliament, as well as the confidence and supply deal that is due to expire at the end of this parliamentary session.

Sources close to the government said May made it clear she wants to restore the Northern Ireland assembly before leaving office and is open to a renewed confidence and supply agreement with the DUP.

May has refused to step down until Brexit is achieved, but a further array of Conservative candidates were jostling for position on Thursday in the expectation that she could soon be out of office.

Esther McVey, a Brexiter who quit the cabinet in protest at May’s Brexit deal, became the third Tory openly to declare her ambition to be prime minister, after Andrea Leadsom and Rory Stewart.

Another potential candidate, Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, also gave a wide-ranging speech on the future of the 21st century worker and warned that “a no-deal prime minister would not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons”.

David Gauke, the justice secretary who has his eye on the chancellorship, gave a speech warning against “culture wars” and against a no-deal Brexit, while Priti Patel, a former development secretary, gave a speech saying there should be a “new generation of political leaders to effectively take back control”.