Ankara is racing for a military operation in northern Syria after S-400 deal

Ahmed Sami Abdel Fattah

The S-400 missile system crisis remains between the United States and Turkey, especially after the latter recently began actually receiving the system from Russia.

The administration of US President Donald Trump has been working to boost its military exports to block its rivals, including the Russians, Chinese and Europeans. Trump said the United States would not allow Turkey to buy more than 100 F-35 fighters in response to Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system.

Trump hopes to push Turkey to buy more US weapons, including the Patriot system. In this regard, Turkey has announced its willingness to negotiate on this matter, provided that the United States makes a suitable offer.

In a careful reading of the scene, the United States is likely to complicate the political and security situation in northern Syria as a punitive measure for Turkey. Ankara is seeking to establish a 30-km safe zone to keep the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) as long as possible. This is what the United States is opposed to, especially since Turkey demands that the safe zone be completely under its control. For its part, the United States wants to establish a safe zone only 5 km deep, which threatens Turkish ambitions, considering that this area is insufficient for refugees to return.

Observers believe Turkey’s desire to create a safe zone is a means to encourage the return of refugees, especially after the refugee crisis played a decisive role in the opposition gaining favor in the local elections in Istanbul. The United States is likely to call its European allies to northern Syrian, complicating things further for Turkey and forcing Ankara to sit at the negotiating table with more than just the United States alone.

Punitive action

The exclusion of Turkey from the US F-35 program is the least punitive measure the United States can take at the moment, but it would have no real effect if the United States allowed Turkey to purchase the aircraft in the future. However, the exclusion of Turkey from the project will have a negative impact on production processes, especially as the United States has to look for an alternative.

Several press reports indicated that the United States had offered India to back out from buying the S-400 system and join the US F-35 production project instead of Turkey, meaning that excluding Turkey is not a strong measure that could adversely affect its military relations with Russia.

False allegations

Currently, Ankara is promoting the idea that its exclusion will delay the delivery of contracted aircraft and will lead to a price hike of approximately $8 million. The purpose of these claims is to push the countries involved in the aircraft production project to put diplomatic pressure on the United States so as not to exclude Turkey.

Turkish affairs expert Mohammed Hamid said that Ankara is now racing for a military operation in northern Syria, because any delay means giving more time to the YPG to prepare for any future battle.

Hamid ruled out any agreement between Turkey and the United States regarding the size of the safe zone, but stressed at the same time that Turkey may conduct a limited military operation that could expand with continuing threats.