Brotherhood, Turkey in gas war against Egypt

Maher Farghaly

As part of its plan to become a global center that will transfer energy, especially in Russia and Kazakhstan to be transferred to Europe through the Turkish project, Turkey has recently ignited a conflict over the gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean region between it on the one hand and Egypt, Cyprus and Greece on the other. However, Egypt’s discovery of the Zohr gas field and the demarcation of its maritime borders made it victorious in the battle to become a liquefied natural gas center in the Middle East, shifting the matter to a war of word to reciprocal military escalation. As usual, the Brotherhood stood with their ally Erdogan against their motherland!

Gas ignites battle

The Turkish position, quite simply, is contrary to international law. It began drilling for gas in the eastern Mediterranean, near northern Cyprus, after the survey proved that its water was not rich in gas. This worried Greece and Egypt after Turkey approached Egyptian territorial waters rich in gas.

The Turks are planning to build a pipeline from northern Cyprus. The Greek navy intercepted a Turkish exploration vessel last week. Ankara, meanwhile, arrested a number of Greeks approaching its shores.

Since the matter is all about sovereignty and control of the trade and transport of gas globally, Greece and Egypt will never allow Turkey to prospect in Cyprus’ economic waters at all, as this is a clear breach of the border demarcation agreement and a transgression of a joint agreement between the three countries.

On Sunday, Feb. 2, 2018, Turkey stopped a gas exploration vessel belonging to Italy’s Eni off the coast of Cyprus. “We are committed to calm to avoid any crisis and are taking all necessary diplomatic steps until the sovereign rights of the Republic of Cyprus are respected,” Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades said.

Remarkably, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said: “We want to resolve the issues by peaceful means!” But Greece responded that the expansion of territorial waters is an indisputable sovereign right, ignoring the warnings that oppose this step.

“If Turkey tries to expand its maritime borders, Greece has the ability to respond, diplomatically and militarily, to this expansion, although it does not wish to get to that point,” the Greek newspaper Ta Nye reported the defense minister as saying.

The Italian company Eni announced the arrest of one of its ship by Turkish warships on February 9 on the pretext of the presence of military activities in the area in question.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel supported Greece and Cyprus. According to Greek government sources, Merkel told former Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras that Germany supports the rights of Athens and Nicosia in the face of Ankara’s provocations.

“Turkey must remember what I said two years ago: Greece is neither Syria nor Iraq,” Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias said.

“The recent Turkish frictions represented by the downing of a Greek plane off the coast of Skyros Island were not the first Turkish violation of Greek airspace,” British magazine The Economist confirmed.

“The disputes over airspace, maritime borders and gas fields poison relations between Turkey and the eastern Mediterranean countries,” the magazine said in a report, adding, “The discoveries of natural gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean, which once formed the key to peace in the region, have provoked many Turkish conflicts and attacks on a number of countries, in addition to Greece.”

Egypt in confrontation

In 2015, the Italian Eni company discovered the Egyptian Zohr field – the largest discovered field in the Mediterranean Sea, surpassing the Israeli Leviathan gas field. Production began in December 2017.

Journalist Ahmed Embaby said, “The field has emerged as a qualitative economic leap for the Egyptian state. After Egypt paid $1.2 billion a month for the purchase of petroleum products, the production of Zohr provided this high cost to the budget. Its production is capable of meeting the needs of the local market, and it is enough to export.”

The reserves of the Zohr field are estimated at about 30 trillion cubic feet of gas, equivalent to 5.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and the field reserves represent more than 135% of the current reserves of crude oil in Egypt, as well as the attraction of foreign investments to the country, estimated at $12 billion, of which $5 billion was spent during the first phase.

For his part, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said during the war of words with Turkey: “We scored a goal in the issue of gas, Egyptians. Today, Egypt has placed it foot on the road and will become a regional energy hub. Egyptian revolution has landed its man on a road that remains a regional center for energy in the region.

Afterwards, the Egyptian military statements regarding Operation Sinai changed, always mentioning the naval forces. On Egyptian Navy Day, on October 21, 2018, the show of force was clear. The Egyptian president rode an attack helicopter to send a message that Ankara, which shares no maritime borders with Egypt, should think a hundred times before approaching Egyptian territorial waters.

President Sisi directed the message to Ankara that any approach to search for gas in areas close to Egyptian economic waters, without prior agreement, is an attack on national security. This brought about the Crete meeting between Egypt, Greece and Cyprus to discuss the repercussions, since solving the issue of maritime borders cannot be peaceful after the recent Turkish moves.

Brotherhood with Turkey

The Egyptian-Greek-Cypriot project runs counter to Russia, which wants to extend a pipeline to Turkey and Syria, and this determines the direction of its connection with those who stand in such a scenario in which the crisis is complicated.

“The Brotherhood tried to open the file of the border demarcation with Cyprus, claiming that it was not drawn in the right way, and they wanted to compliment Erdogan, but Egypt closed this file,” Egypt’s former Petroleum Minister Osama Kamal explained in a statement to the newspaper Sada al-Balad on February 16, 2018, adding, “The border demarcation agreement has been signed since 2003, and then there was a claim that there was an error in demarcating the border. The demarcation of the border with Saudi Arabia was completed in 2010 and was not implemented until 2015 because of the political situation.”

If the battle of words is over, then who does the Brotherhood – always in opposition to Sisi – stand with? “The Brotherhood will certainly stand with Turkey, because their position is clear from the current regime in Egypt,” said Abbas Muhammad Saleh, a Sudanese researcher of Turkish affairs.

However, Saleh does not expect an outbreak of war, saying, “Whatever the degree of conflict between Turkey and Egypt over the exploitation of gas reserves in the territorial waters of the two countries, the eastern Mediterranean, I do not think that the choice of war will be in the interest of the two countries. Therefore, I rule out a war between them. The strategy of a war resolution is not in the hands of Egypt or Turkey; it is in the hands of the ‘open European veto’. They will oppose any war that may lie on the periphery of their continent. Finally, there are diplomatic mechanisms that can be resorted to. Even if these mechanisms are exhausted, there is the political will of the international community that will deter any party inclined to the option of war.”

Gas will be at the center of the new conflict in the region in the years to come, said Turkish affairs researcher Mohamed Abdelkader.

He said that the Brotherhood is closer to Turkey because it has its own special vision in this conflict, which is interspersed with a pattern of historic and border disputes with Greece and Cyprus, ideological and political conflicts with the Egyptian state, and also Qatar, which will not welcome Egypt’s transformation into a gas transport and export power. This is deducted from its role in this market, while at the same time supporting Egypt’s economic presence, which it does not accept. Hence, the Brotherhood’s allies Turkey and Qatar adopt anti-Egyptian views. This is cause for concern because it indicates that there is a zero-sum game reflected by the size of the trend to arm the naval forces in all countries of the Eastern Mediterranean.