Daesh states amid expansion illusion, attempts to prove existence

Ahmed Soltan

Five years after his first public appearance, the leader of Daesh has returned in a footage with him talking to three of the organization’s leaders as he invited jihadists to a war of attrition.

Al-Baghdadi appeared for the second time since taking over the leadership of the organization in 2010.

He talked about the new organization’s strategy after losing cities and being expelled from its main strongholds in Syria, Iraq, Libya and the Philippines.

Al-Baghdadi affirmed that “there is today a battle of attrition,” and he exhorted all jihadists to “keep pace with the enemies, wearing them down in their human, military, economic, and logistical capacities.”

After al-Baghdadi ended his speech, one of his companions presented him with a file of the so-called “Daesh States” around the world.

The video focused on the so-called “state of Turkey” and “the states of Somalia and Yemen” before al-Baghdadi left the files at the end of the video.

After its latest defeat in Syria’s Baghouz village, the terrorist organization tried to regain the loyalty of its members, by claiming that this is a test that requires patience.

Daesh media outlets broadcast a speech by spokesperson of the terrorist organization Abu Abul-Hasan Al-Muhajir around a month before Baghdadi’s footage, in which he urged Daesh members to fight until death in order to be rewarded with heavens.

In the 18-minute video from the Al Furqan network, a bearded man with Baghdadi’s appearance says the Easter bombings in Sri Lanka were Daesh’s response to losses in its last territorial stronghold of Baghouz in Syria.

According to reports previously published by The Reference, the Daesh organization has developed a number of strategies in its armed operations, which are carried out on many axes.

It also developed a number of strategies and tactics that depended on the dismantling of the political geography of the countries in which it is taking advantage of the deterioration of the societal, religious, political and economic conditions, thus achieving these goals and ambitions it seeks in any way.

All these tactics and evils carried out by the terrorist organization have made it achieve many successes in the areas of conflict.

The new strategies of the terrorist organization are new sales and recruitment of new elements in its areas of influence and presence, making it difficult for the armies to meet the potential power of the organization in the coming period, as revealed by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the organization’s leader.

After Daesh’s defeat in Baghouz, it cancelled its caliphates in Iraq, Syria and Libya and integrated them into one caliphate.

The number of Daesh states decreased from 36 in July 2016 to only 11 states at the mean time.

According to an infograph published by Daesh official newsletter Al-Nabaa, the current Daesh branches are in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, West Africa, Central Africa, Sinai, Somalia, Khorasan, the Caucasus in addition to two other branches in India and Pakistan and another one in Turkey that did not carry out actual attacks since Al-Baghdadi’s speech in April 2019.

Daesh continues to communicate with its branches in Africa and Asia through the foreign department of the terrorist organization, which is being supervised by the so-called “Daesh Immigration Authority.”

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy said in a report that Daesh in Syria and Iraq delegated terrorist leaders to some of its “affiliated-states” to supervise and lead the members, pointing out that the success of the “Daesh Caliphate” myth is far more important to the organization that any actual achievement.

According to the report Daesh provinces clearly enjoy greater chances of success if they take the place of failed or undergoverned states. “Charismatic leadership also often plays a role in developing successful provinces. Clearly, access to money and weapons is important, but so is the impact of Daesh direction on a province’s social media platforms and digital footprint. Finally, the ability to attract foreign fighters has become an important aspect of the Islamic State core, and already signs indicate some recruits have been directed to Daesh provinces in Libya.”

The report also said that other groups, such as those in the Philippines and Bangladesh, remain unrecognized by Daesh core as official provinces, despite having pledged an oath of allegiance to Daesh has issued criteria for prospective affiliates and appears to be savvy to maintaining the value of its brand by not, so to speak, “compromising its standards” or expanding “too quickly.”

While the recognition of new provinces is a clear demonstration of the Daesh slogan of “remaining and expanding,” Daesh also appears to be implementing a strategy of managed growth, especially as it comes under pressure in Syria and Iraq, the report added.