Researchers reveal future of ISIS security cells in Syria and Iraq

Ahmed Sultan

At the end of last March, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) seized control of the last strongholds of ISIS in the town of Baghouz, declaring the end of the era of the terrorist organization’s caliphate.

Less than a month later, ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi released a video announcing the start of a new phase of terrorist operations in a “war of attrition.” He called on ISIS elements and cells to “deplete” the military, financial and human resources of the enemies of ISIS until their resistance collapses and the terrorist organization can return to control the cities again.

ISIS’s new war

After the collapse of its territorial caliphate, the organization announced the establishment of so-called “security states,” thus canceling the previous states in the cities of Iraq, Syria and Libya, having merged under “one state,” and reducing the number of ISIS states of 36 states in July 2016 to currently only 11 states, in addition to a number of countries where the organization has active “soldiers of the caliphate.”

According to an infograph published by the terrorist organization in the ISIS newspaper, the current states include the “Iraq, the Levant, Yemen, West Africa, Central Africa, Sinai, Somalia, Khorasan, and the Caucasus, in addition to two separate states in India and Pakistan and another state in Turkey.” The organization also announced the presence of other elements in a number of countries, including “Iran, Azerbaijan and Tunisia.”

ISIS remnants renew their allegiance to the “Emir of Terror”

After his last appearance, ISIS branches and cells began to renew allegiance Baghdadi, asserting their old loyalty remained. The organization launched a campaign that included publishing videos of ISIS security states pledging allegiance to Baghdadi.

Analysts believe the new campaign comes to emphasize “the legitimacy of Baghdadi” after the disagreement that took place within the organization between the anti-current movement Turki al-Binali and the more hardline al-Furqan.

The rest of ISIS in Iraq and Syria now makes up the nucleus loyal to the organization’s leader, British researcher Ayman Jawad al-Tamimi stated in an analysis on July 15, stressing that it is not possible to get accurate information about the security cells and terrorist leaders that remain.

New waves of terrorism

Following the terrorist organization’s loss of Baghuoz, ISIS launched a terrorist campaign during which it launched a number of bloody attacks in a number of countries, most notably the Easter attacks in Sri Lanka. Following that campaign, ISIS cells in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Africa and elsewhere began terrorist campaigns targeting the regular forces in those countries.

In response to this campaign, a number of intelligence agencies – including the Sufan Group and the Institute for War Studies – issued dire warnings of a return of ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

In the same context, the Middle East Forum, a foreign research center on the affairs of Islamic groups, published an analysis of the situation in Syria and Iraq, warning of the seriousness of the current security situation in the two countries.

It added that the organization’s leaders still exist and are able to re-establish ISIS again, pointing out that the sectarian war between Sunnis and Shiites will continue because of Iranian interventions in the region, which ISIS will use to stay and spread.

Future of security cells

The Middle East Forum in its analysis stated that ISIS’s attempts to exploit the injustice of Sunnis and the continuation of security work may face a number of problems, including the crisis of foreign fighters in guerrilla operations launched by the organization. ISIS is relying on Iraqi and Syrian elements more, while there is less dependence on foreign elements, even though that was one of the major factors leading to the collapse of the ISIS state, the forum pointed out.

Foreign fighters from Europe, Asia and Africa face problems working within the ISIS cells because of their differences with the local population in Syria and Iraq, as well as their lack of proficiency in the Arabic language, which makes the security forces distrust them.

The security forces in Syria and Iraq will seek to track the ISIS cells, having already started with Iraqi Operation Will of Victory, the forum said, explaining that Iraqi forces, for example, had 30,000 suspects before the battle to liberate Mosul in 2016, with some 6,000 of them arrested on charges of terrorism.

It is expected that the conflict between the Mujahedeen and other armed groups will continue because of past disagreements and the war waged by the organization against other factions in Syria and Iraq, including al-Qaeda, which is competing for the leadership of the so-called “global jihad.”

ISIS will also lose the ability to preserve its cells and leadership in Syria and Iraq, as happened previously because of the international war against it.

According to the forum, the terrorist organization will face problems with its Sunni Arab incubator after it brought destruction to Iraqi and Syrian Sunni cities it purportedly sought to preserve.

The Middle East Forum believes that the idea of ​​divine help will not have the same spark, especially after the defeats encountered by the organization in Syria and Iraq, which suggests to the organization’s proponents that divine providence is no longer with them.

Baghdadi will also face problems trying to escape and hide from the intelligence apparatuses in Syria, Iraq and other countries, especially after declaring war on Turkey, which had earlier facilitated the organization. The Middle East Forum expects Baghdadi will not resort to relocating there after the recent tensions between the two sides.

Meanwhile, international terrorism researcher Ali Bakr said that the organization is currently seeking to maintain its security cells deployed in Iraq and Syria after losing the territory it had controlled. He added that ISIS will seek to continue terrorist attacks in the style of guerrilla warfare but will not seek to control land during the current period, especially since it has lost a large part of its strength over recent years.