Will Erdogan leave office before 2023?

Doaa Emam

The political arena in Turkey has seen several debates about the possibility of the departure of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan through an early presidential election ahead of schedule in 2023, based on the deteriorating economic scene, the lira against the dollar, the mayoral election victory of opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu in Istanbul, and the preparations for the new political party founded by dissidents from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Turkish writer Hassan Jamal directed the Turkish opposition to meet on a joint platform by next fall and issue a democratic declaration for Erdogan to leave office. The carpet began to be pulled out from under the Turkish president after Imamoglu won the election last month in Istanbul to become mayor.

In his article “How will Erdogan leave?” Jamal said that the indicators presented by the opposition and the authorities show the imminent departure of the Turkish president and that he has no choice but to bid farewell to his post within the framework of democratic rules.

“Opposition parties must meet on a common platform by autumn and issue a democratic statement to the public, without further discussion. They must follow the Imamoglu strategy in this matter and avoid discord and mayhem. They must completely avoid aggressive and polarized language,” he said.

Jamal stressed that the opposition following this approach will easily open the way for Erdogan’s departure. He pointed out that the first steps to achieve this include having the five opposition parties issue a statement in the fall and launching discussions on the establishment of a new constitutional system with a parliamentary reference.

In the same context, Abdul Qadir Salafi, a writer at the newspaper Hürriyet, hinted at holding early elections because of Imamoglu’s victory and the new political party, pointing to the decreased support for elections to be held when originally scheduled in 2023.

Salafi stressed that there is a strong possibility of holding early elections. It is worth noting that Turkey, exhausted by the elections, needs four and a half years without elections. However, dates for new elections started being discussed in Ankara with news of the establishment of new political parties.

Over the past few months, there have been many cases of dissent within Erdogan’s party against the backdrop of the election loss in Istanbul in favor of Imamoglu. On Monday, July 8, Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan resigned to establish a new party in cooperation with former President Abdullah Gül.

The splits point to Turkey’s trend to put an end to Erdogan’s one-man rule by confronting the dictatorship through the establishment of new parties at the hands of the president’s own men, especially with the opposition looking for new breath, relying on the Babacan party and the visions of former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

According to Haber Turk, Babacan made an offer to the former mayor of Fethiye, Bhagat Saatchi, after separating from Al-Khair Party to establish the party’s structure in the southwestern city of Mugla. According to sources close to the Turkish Deputy Prime Minister, there will be a wave of schisms during the next stage within the ranks of the AKP, Al-Khair Party and a number of other political parties.

Observers believe that the establishment of a party led by Babacan and Gül will encourage the Republican People’s Party (CHP), reluctant to stand in the same circle with the Kurds, to enter into an alliance against the AKP and facilitate the establishment of a strong common bloc, in addition to contributing to the discussion of the Kurdish issue in a natural framework.