Tackling the return of ISIS: US report warns of the arrival of open war to critical point

Although ISIS lacks the capacity to carry out large-scale, cost-effective terrorist attacks or control territory for long periods of time, its destabilizing activities, such as assassinations, ambushes, suicide operations, and crop burning, are on the rise, seeking to instill fear and undermine its leaders.

Report on Operation Hard Determination

Since the US-backed Syrian opposition forces recaptured remnants of Syrian territory that had been under the control of ISIS, representing an official end to the terrorist presence of the bloody organization, it has desperately tried to shake off its denial of defeat to return to the scene, promising to intensify attacks on every the US-led international coalition and its Kurdish allies in Syria, in a video broadcast on one of its channels on Telegram.

The previous lines were a summary of the Pentagon’s Office of the Inspector General’s report to Congress on the “Operation Hard Determination,” as the US-led counterterrorism effort against ISIS is known. The study was made public in early August and covers the period from April 1 to June 30. It notes that over the past few months, ISIS has strengthened its armed capabilities in Iraq and re-deployed to Syria

Between the Kurds and ISIS

In the wake of the incident, elements of the so-called Sham Liberation Organization killed two leaders of the organization, one of them is the so-called governor of Idlib.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, ISIS leaders were killed during a raid on a house where ISIS sleeper cells were hiding on the outskirts of the city of Salqin on the Syrian-Turkish border with Iskenderun Brigade, west of Idlib.

The organization accuses the sleeper cells of the organization, responsible for the lawlessness, and the killing of more than 586 fighters and leaders, while the Daesh organization also practiced the policy of assassination and liquidation with other Syrian factions since April last year, according to the Syrian Observatory.

In addition, despite heavy losses on the battlefield over the past year and a half, ISIS has managed to retain a significant number of its terrorist elements.

According to the report of the Office of the Inspector General, it is likely that the organization has between 14 and 18 thousand members in Iraq and Syria, including about 3,000 foreign elements, and is trying to boost its strength through its activity through social media, globally.

The group’s latest attack dates back to August 7, when five people, including three children, were killed in a car bomb attack in al-Qahtaniya in the Kurdish-controlled Syrian province of al-Hasakah.

In the video, the group accused the coalition countries of luring its opponents, including the Kurds, stressing that the blood of its dead will not be wasted in vain, according to the video, which did not exceed 10 minutes, and included scenes of beheading and executions of people, said the organization.

They are Kurdish fighters kidnapped by extremists, as the video includes excerpts from television reports and testimonies claiming that the organization has not been defeated and remains active in Syria.

The American withdrawal and the return of ISIS

The Pentagon report pointed out that the recent activity of ISIS comes with Washington completing a “partial withdrawal” from this country, after US President Donald Trump announced last year victory over the organization, and ordered the withdrawal of all US soldiers from Syria, in a decision to push the then Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to resign.

ISIS is trying to expand its influence among the population in the predominantly Sunni provinces north and west of Baghdad.

In those places, IS has reorganized its leadership, established safe havens, and is now working hard to strengthen its ranks by exploiting family and tribal ties.

At the same time, the weakness of local partners has provided an opportunity to expand ISIS activities. Internal security often refers to the ability to keep troops in the territory cleared from the presence of ISIS, allowing the organization to reconstitute its forces and reclaim the land.

IS also brilliantly exploits Iraq’s internal political divisions, the most important of which are long-term tensions between the central government and the Kurdistan region. This friction has created gaps in the coverage of liberated areas between Iraqi security forces and Kurdish Peshmerga forces, which the group has benefited from in order to regroup. New attacks are planned, the latest of which took place on August 7.

Critical point

Meanwhile, northeastern Syria is rapidly emerging as a critical point of conflict. In the governorate of al-Hasakah, the sprawling al-Hol camp now houses around 75,000 displaced people, including thousands of ISIS families, estimated at 29,000, including foreign terrorist children.

Unsurprisingly, ISIS operates in the Hul camp, where it is trying to recruit new members. At the same time, reducing the number of US troops in Syria has weakened the ability of America and its allies to accurately measure conditions inside the camp, forcing Washington and its allies to rely on third-party assessment, ie organizations and humanitarian actors.

At the same time, according to the report of the Office of the Inspector General, the SDF is able to provide only minimal security inside the camp, allowing the ideology of ISIS to spread, which is crucial because the UN estimates that some 31,000 people have returned.