The Turkish dilemma in northern Syria

Ahmed Sami Abdel Fattah

Turkish military deployment in Syria has to follow new rules following new developments in the northern part of the war-torn country.

This is especially true after Russia said it would continue to back efforts by the Syrian national army to fight terrorism in Syria.

The Syrian army had recaptured the whole of Khan Shaikhoun on August 23. This brought the Turkish observation point no. 9 under siege. This reduced the number of options Ankara has, especially when it comes to military reinforcements.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov commented on this by saying that his country would respond very decisively if the terrorists had maintained attacks against the Syrian army, civilians and the Russian airbase in Khmeimim.

“The Turkish army had already set up a number of supervision points,” he said. “There were hopes that the presence of Turkish military personnel in the area would prevent attacks, but this had not happened.”

Turkey had set up 12 supervision points in Idlib, Hama and Aleppo in coordination with Russia and Iran. The points aim to ensure abidance by the de-escalation agreement between the Syrian army and the militant groups fighting it in these cities.

Turkey also pledged to contain extremist groups and induce them from launching attacks against the Russian airbase.

Turkish violations

Syrian Envoy at the United Nations Bashar al-Gaafari revealed that Turkey had sent 10,655 army troops to Idlib. He said Turkey also sent 166 tanks, 278 armored vehicles, 18 rocket launchers, 173 grenade launchers, and 41 antitank rocket launchers to Idlib.

He described the Turkish reinforcements as a violation of understandings reached in Astana.

The fact is that Turkey could not have set up its supervision points without taking permission from Tahrir al-Sham group. Group fighters used to accompany Turkish officers as they carried out their missions in Syria.

Possible scenarios

The supervision point no. 9 in Murak is a real problem for Turkey, especially after the recapture of Khan Shaikhoun by the Syrian army.

Turkey can only relocated this supervision point inside Idlib, but after negotiating with Russia.

It can keep the location of the point as is, but in this case it will be vulnerable to encroachments with the Syrian army.

Solution

Turkish affairs specialist Mohamed Hamed said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Moscow on August 27 aimed to find a solution to the problem of the supervision point no 9.

“Moving the point from its position will be humiliating for Turkey,” Hamed told The Reference. “Keeping the point as will open the door for war with the Syrian army.”