War options recede between Washington and Tehran with a possible deal

Ali Ragab

The flames of summer in the Gulf have turned into political fires that ignited the tense atmosphere in light of the tanker war and the US sanctions against Tehran, which have affected the most prominent figures of the mullah regime, including Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Despite confusion of the scene, the options for war have diminished, replaced by the American desire to conclude a deal with Tehran, albeit serving Washington’s interests.

Invitation and channel of communication

Zarif’s invitation to visit the White House and the remarks of the US Ambassador to Iraq Matthew Tueller shows the existence of a channel of communication between Washington and Tehran, indicating the inclination of both parties towards dialogue.

Republican Senator Rand Paul invited Zarif during their meeting in New York in mid-July to meet President Donald Trump in the Oval Office, while the White House did not confirm or deny the report, The New Yorker reported.

US Senator Lindsey Graham said that if the news about Zarif’s invitation to the White House were true, it would undermine the US stance on Tehran.

Iranian government spokesman Ali Rubaie said the White House had invited Zarif to meet President Trump during his visit to the United Nations, according to Iran’s state Press TV.

What Republican Senator Rand Paul revealed about Zarif’s invitation is in line with what the new US ambassador in Baghdad, Matthew Tueller, said regarding Washington having a direct channel of communication with Tehran to resolve the crisis between the two countries.

“We have a direct channel of communication with Tehran, and there are efforts by Washington to resolve the crisis between the United States and Iran,” the new US ambassador to Iraq told reporters in Baghdad on Sunday night, ISNA reported.

In May, CNN reported that Trump, during his meeting with his Swiss counterpart Ueli Maurer in Washington, discussed opening a channel of communication with the Iranians.

Trump had expressed in press statements last May his desire to contact Iran’s leaders to resolve the crisis, saying that his administration left a phone number with the Swiss so that the Iranians could contact him in case they want to negotiate.

Iranian optimism

Meanwhile, Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Pourdastan, head of the Center for Strategic Studies and Research in Iran, read the developments of the file on the US-Iranian crisis, saying that it represents a decline in “the possibility of military conflict in the Gulf.”

“At first glance, what is happening in the Gulf region may indicate the possibility of a military conflict, but when we look at the depth of the events, we see that the possibility is very low,” Pourdastan told Mehr news agency on Sunday.

“All countries with interests in the Gulf do not want to see another crisis in the region,” he said.

Pourdastan urged diplomacy instead of war and said, “The current situation shows that our diplomacy will certainly perform its task and will achieve the desired result.”

Possible deal

Earlier reports point to the possibility of a new US-Iranian deal, as confirmed by US and Hebrew press reports. The Daily Beast newspaper reported that President Trump commissioned Senator Lindsey Graham, a hawk in the US Congress and chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, to prepare a project for a new deal with Iran to replace the nuclear deal he withdrew from in May 2018.

Graham spoke about his plan to the paper, saying that the United States should ask the Iranian regime to agree to the so-called 123 agreement, a key legally binding obligation that requires countries that have nuclear deals with the United States to sign the nonproliferation standards, which more than 40 countries have signed.

A Hebrew report on Monday also suggested the possibility of a “second deal” between Washington and Tehran.

“There are indications that Trump has begun to reflect on the policy of maximum pressure on Iran and is seeking a deal before Tehran accepts its negotiated acceptance,” said David Weinberg, vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

In a report published in the Israel Today newspaper, Weinberg warned that “Iranian negotiators will win any round of negotiations without pressure, allowing them to reach an agreement in their favor.”

“This is not the time to retreat, because the rulers of Tehran began to feel pressure, which explains their threat and their recent provocative actions in the Gulf,” Weinberg stressed, adding that “the US president should not retreat; there is much that can be done to force Iran to its knees and to negotiate on its own terms.”

Meanwhile, Iranian affairs expert Dr. Mohammad Benayah said that there are many indications of a quiet cooking of a US-Iranian deal between Trump and Khamenei.

Results of sanctions

The statements and press reports coming out of Washington and Tehran point to a deal and rapprochement, Benayah explained, pointing out that the Israeli reports confirm this news and even reveal the approach of this deal is coming out in public.

Benayah stressed that the policy of sanctions and pressure is beginning to bear fruit with the Iranian regime, and the talk of Iranian leaders about dialogue with Washington confirms that the pressure is paying off and that Trump is approaching a deal with Khamenei.