Turkey’s Peace Spring to result tremendous implications for regional stability, security

Ahmed Soltan

U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew military personnel from embedded positions with the Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) near the border with Turkey, setting the stage for Ankara’s invasion on Wednesday, a step that would benefit the terrorist Daesh organization, a report by Soufan Group said.

According to the report, to date, Kurdish forces have done the bulk of the fighting against Daesh in Syria and lost an estimated 11,000 fighters in the years-long campaign to roll back the territorial gains of the terrorist group.

Training, equipping, and assisting those Kurdish forces has been a primary mission of the U.S. military inside Syria. With the Turkish invasion, Kurdish fighters have ceased operations against remnants of Daesh militants.

The decision generated a rare rebuke from Republican lawmakers, including Senator Lindsey Graham, who strongly objected to the abandonment of the Kurds and forfeiting critical ground in Syria, an opportunity that U.S. adversaries will undoubtedly capitalize upon.

The report also added that the United States and Turkey have never agreed on Washington’s strategy of fighting Daesh by arming the Kurds. Ankara has long viewed Kurdish groups as more of a direct threat to Turke. Erdogan has repeatedly warned the United States that Turkey it would not tolerate a Kurdish military presence on its southern border.

The presence of U.S. troops, even if small in number, was specifically intended to deter Turkish attacks on the SDF and other Kurdish forces.

Once those U.S. troops were ordered to pull back, Turkey wasted little time in launching an offensive, which was facilitated by an agreement referred to as the ‘security mechanism,’ wherein Kurdish defensive outposts were dismantled in exchange for promises of joint patrols and other cooperative measures.

Turkish F-16s are now, the report said, conducting airstrikes in Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn, along with artillery bombardments and a ground invasion. The situation is chaotic and accurate reporting has been inconsistent, particularly since Kurdish communication towers have been knocked offline. Multiple civilian deaths have already been reported and will inevitably increase.

Some analysts expect this current operation to last for several months. Turkey envisions creating a ‘safe zone’ for the return of over hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees who currently reside in Turkey.

The report further added that Turkey has been given the operational space to shape the conditions of the ground, although mixed messages continue to emanate from the White House.

“Turkey plans to send back untold numbers of Syrian refugees that Ankara has supported, which will likely alter the demographics of the border region, an issue that will reverberate throughout the region for years to come and almost guarantees ethnic conflict and sectarian grievances in the future,” the report said.