Erdogan’s militias are being tested after nine years of Turkish terrorism

Sarah Rashad

The year 2019 did not mark a significant shift in Turkey’s priorities since the start of the Arab Spring. Ankara continued its efforts towards empowering Islamist groups, whether by providing weapons or political cover.

Despite the huge cost incurred by Ankara, both at the political and financial levels, according to statements by the Turkish opposition, the year is ending as developments have fractured the hotbeds of tension between Ankara and passing its goals.

Libya

Although statements by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and government officials about conducting battles in the Libyan capital Tripoli may reflect Turkey’s confidence in the ability to prevent the Libyan National Army (LNA) from taking control of the capital, they also reveal Ankara’s deep fear of a scenario in which Tripoli is liberated.

Libyan researcher Muhammad al-Zubaidi explained to the Reference that Ankara is aware of Libya’s importance in the map of Turkish influence in the region and for this reason is desperately defending the capital to keep it in the hands of the militias.

Zubaidi noted the “Turkish arrogance” found within the statements, which exposes Turkey’s state of weakness and fear of losing the capital.

He explained that Turkey treats Libya as a treasure without an owner, which will make its loss painful.

Since early April 2019, Turkey has attacked the LNA’s move to liberate the capital from terrorism, describing it as an “aggression” against legitimacy.

These attacks turned into Turkey’s undeclared support for the armed militias in Tripoli through weapons and individuals. Then the Turkish president said two weeks ago in an interview with Turkey’s TRT channel that his country was ready to send military forces to support the militias in Tripoli as soon as the Government of National Accord (GNA) requested it.

The matter did not stop there, as Erdogan continued his justification for interfering in Libya by saying during the launch ceremony of a new submarine that the founder of the republic, Kemal Ataturk, had served as an Ottoman soldier in Libya, viewing it therefore necessary for Turkey to be there.

He also claimed that about a million Turks are in Libya, considering this to be another reason for the intervention.

In this context, Zubaidi suggested that the New Year would witness a complete collapse of Turkey’s influence in Libya, noting that 2019 came laden with losses of Turkish policies in Libya after the LNA managed to tighten its grip on Libya’s east and south.

Syria

In Syria, matters do not differ much in terms of the weakness of the Turkish-backed militias, even if the data disagrees.

While Turkey defends the militias in Libya, it has often been silent regarding the Syrian army’s strikes against the factions controlling Idlib.

Due to this silence, observers have supported the possibility that Turkey will move towards lifting its hand from the militias, specifically Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, in order to satisfy the Russian side, which insists on dismantling the group as a terrorist faction.

Political researcher Muhammad Faraj Abu al-Nur said that the military solution in Idlib is inevitably coming.

He agreed with the opinion that the Turkish policies in Idlib have collapsed, telling the Reference that developments have proven that Turkey was forced to abandon its pro-militia policies.

Abu al-Nur pointed out that Ankara is obliged to abandon the militias and even contribute to their dismantlement in order to satisfy Russia, as Turkey is using Russia to confront Europe on some issues, including the import of arms.

He expected that the New Year would witness the launch of a comprehensive military operation by the Syrian army to clean up Idlib, after several tours that witnessed the city during the past year.

With this proposal, Turkey will be on the verge of losing both Syria and Libya through the defeat of its militias, despite the series of interventions it has made over the past nine years by providing material and military support to the Islamists.