Three scenarios decide war in the Gulf as Iran arms its groups and US sends its forces

Ali Ragab

Statements from the Trump administration on Wednesday, December 4 about sending more American forces to counter Iranian threats in the Gulf have raised questions about the prospect of confrontation between Washington and Tehran, especially after the latter moved missiles to Iraq.

The Wall Street Journal stated on Wednesday that Washington is considering sending 14,000 soldiers to the Middle East, noting that the plan to send American forces to the region aims to deter any possible Iranian response to US sanctions.

The move comes as US officials announced that the missile destroyer USS Forrest Sherman found parts of missiles believed to belong to Iran in the Gulf of Oman, at a time when the administration of President Donald Trump is pressuring Tehran to limit its regional activities.

According to preliminary information, one of the officials said the weapons were destined for Iran-allied Houthi fighters in Yemen, according to Reuters.

“We are still seeing indications, and for obvious reasons, I will not go into details about the possibility of launching an Iranian offensive,” Under Secretary of Defense for Policy John Rood told reporters on Wednesday.

Rood did not provide details of any timeline or the information on which the concerns were based.

“We have sent very clear and frank signals to the Iranian government about the repercussions of the possible aggression,” he added.

There are also American indicators confirmed by press reports about the presence of an Iranian missile arsenal in Iraq. The New York Times reported that its military and intelligence sources said that while Iraq was living in a widespread state of massive protests, Iran built a hidden “arsenal” of short-range ballistic missiles there, which threatens US allies and partners in the region.

Intelligence officials told the New York Times that the Iranian arsenal poses grave danger to the United States and its allies in the region, noting that the missile arsenal is outside the borders of Iran and therefore Iran controls the arsenal remotely, meaning that in the event of confrontation with the United States, the second party will be Iran-affiliated Iraqi militias.

The US administration announced its desire to form a naval alliance to accompany ships in the region, along with Washington’s efforts to send some military forces to the region to secure international trade and navigation routes from any potential threat, as it sent thousands of troops, an aircraft carrier, B-52 bombers with nuclear capability, and advanced fighter jets to the Middle East. This sparked controversy over the potential escalation of the conflict between Tehran and international powers after repeated attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, as well as attacks by Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen on Saudi Arabia and the downing of a US military drone.

In November, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait announced joining the international coalition led by Washington.

Last October, a US plan to strike Iran was leaked if the military option was resorted to as a final solution, US President Donald Trump announced.

Leaked documents published by the British newspaper Express revealed that the plan, called the “Iran Theater in the Short-Term”, aims to crush Tehran’s power centers within 24 hours by destroying its weapons of mass destruction, nuclear power installations, armed forces, state agencies, and economic infrastructure with sudden attacks against 10,000 targets in a single day, while avoiding ground invasion and nuclear weapons.

The Washington Post also mentioned the temporary transfer of the US Air Force Middle East Command Center from Qatar to South Carolina on September 28 for a period of only 24 hours, in a development that had not occurred 13 years ago.

For his part, Iranian affairs expert Dr. Muhammad Bannaya said that all scenarios are expected in the Iranian crisis and Trump’s confrontation of Iranian influence.

Bannaya told the Reference that there are multiple scenarios to reach a new nuclear agreement with Tehran after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced his country’s readiness to negotiate with the US administration. This position comes after the Revolutionary Guards and security services repressed the gasoline revolution in Iran, as well as the catastrophic situation afflicting the Iranian economy.

He added that the second scenario is the gradual suffocation. The Iranian regime is losing its arms in the region, with the loss of the Khamenei regime’s influence and ability abroad. This scenario is now being implemented through the imposition of sanctions, military buildup, and supporting the demonstrations internally.

The third scenario, from Bannaya’s viewpoint, is directing a limited military strike against the Iranian regime, especially military bases and nuclear installations, and the process of ending the regime’s military capabilities internally, which would encourage the Iranian people to revolt and topple the regime.