Turkey in tug of war with EU as Erdogan banks on political ploys

Mahmoud al-Batakoushy

The European Union is fed up with political ploys of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has triggered a number of crises for Europe. A border demarcation agreement, which was signed between Turkey and Libya’s Government of National Accord, tops these crises.

The demarcation agreement allows Turkey to excavate for gas near the Greek and Cypriot waters in the Mediterranean Sea. The European Union considers such agreement as a violation of the sovereignty of other countries.

In March 2018, the EU decried Turkey’s illegal activities in the east of the Mediterranean, calling on Ankara to immediately and unconditionally stop threatening the east Mediterranean countries.

Erdogan is trying to maximize his gains through taking advantage of the refugees and ISIS for blackmailing Europe.  Erdogan has applied that blackmail policy as he in 2016 agreed with the EU leaders to put an end to illegal migration flows from Turkey to the European countries.

The agreement was aimed at creating better conditions for refugees in Turkey, where there are around 3.6 million Syrian refugees. Erdogan snatched $6.7 billion to this end.

Turkey has been taking advantage of the Syrian refugees as a “pressure card”, which opened the door for the Turkish aggression on the north of Syria following the US withdrew its troops from Syria, on October 11.

Europe is also worried about Turkey’s links to radical groups, and Ankara’s negative involvement in the Middle East region’s crises. Moreover, the demographic factor is an obstacle in the way for Turkey’s membership on the EU as its population stands at around 80 million people.

Turkey’s population is expected to increase to 100 million people during the coming few years. The EU’s population stands at around 503 million people. The EU’s population growth has been declining, which increases Turkey’s quota in the voting process if is accepted as EU member state.

In a bid to rein in Erdogan’s ambitions, the EU is currently applying a strategy aimed at closing the door to Turkey’s membership in the EU. Moreover, the EU is considering withdrawal of European investments from Turkey. European investments in Turkey account for 60% of the total foreign investment.

Trade between Turkey and the EU totaled 154 billion euros at the end of 2017. The EU may also stop giving Turkey any more loans as Ankara is going through tough economic hardship.

Earlier, Turkey borrowed 30 billion euros from the European Investment Bank, and 11 billion euros from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Moreover, the EU has halted arms sales to Turkey, and put Turkey’s DITIB under the supervision of European intelligence services for its role in the promotion of hate and violence.