Deep crisis for Iran after Ukrainian plane crash

Mohamed Shaath

Iran is in for a new trouble, after the crash of a Ukrainian passenger plane with 176 people on its board, including 83 Iranian nationals.

The plane crashed immediately after it took off from Imam Khomeini Airport.

The plane tragedy happened when Iran was attacking with missiles two US embassies in Iraq.

Scenarios

1 – Technical failure

Following the accident, Iran hurried to say that it was caused by a technical failure. It did this in order to keep accusations that it had caused it away from it. The surprising thing is that Iran claimed the plane crash had happened because of a technical failure, even before conducting an investigation into the accident. This was why it failed to present any proof in this regard. It only wanted to evade responsibility for causing the tragedy.

2 – Stray rocket

The US and Canada said the accident was most likely caused by a stray missile. Iran’s rejection to hand over the two black boxes of the plane backed this possibility. Tehran then showed flexibility on the handover of the boxes after pressure was put on it.

US investment

The US appeared calm after the Iranian attack on the two US bases in Iraq. US President Donald Trump said everything was ok. This shows that the attacks did not cause any harm to his country.

Nonetheless, the US apparently plans to use the plane crash tragedy in order to fire back at Tehran.

The American Federal Aviation Administration issued a ban against the use of the Iranian and the Iraqi airspaces. It also barred US planes from flying over the Gulf of Oman.

Trump at the same time said something horrible had happened.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, meanwhile, that the Ukrainian plane was shot down by a surface-to-air missile.

He added that the missile might have unintentionally fired at the plane. Johnson also called for opening a transparent inquiry into the accident which killed four British citizens.

Iranian dilemma

The fact that many parties are affected by the accident causes a big problem for Iran. For the US, the accident is a very good chance for mobilizing the international community against Iran which now threatens air and maritime aviation.

Possible scenarios

Iran may try to conceal facts about the accident in an attempt to buy time. Nevertheless, this can encourage the US to impose yet a new regime of sanctions on Iran.

If Iran concedes that it shot down the plane, it will have to pay huge compensation. This will harm the Iranian economy even more.

If the countries affected lodge a complaint against Iran at the UN Security Council, the council may impose international sanctions on Iran.