Difficult response equation for Iran after the killing of Soleimani

Eslam Mohamed

Since the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani on Friday, January 3, Tehran is between two fires, as it is must take revenge for its most important man in the region, otherwise its opponents will consider a non-response as an indication of the weakness and decline of the Iranian project, and the mullahs will lose much of the influence and prestige they have built over the years.

Difficult response equation

A military response to the United States is an unsafe adventure, after Washington’s threats were confirmed sincere, as US President Donald Trump ordered on Sunday, January 5 to send military forces to the region, and he approved the allocation of $2 trillion to develop military equipment. Following this, he directly threatened Tehran, saying, “We are the best and largest in the world.”

On the other hand, Iran’s budget is already suffering from a severe deficit in a way that does not enable it to become involved in an armed conflict of this magnitude, and its armed forces suffer from a severe weakness in equipment. The total Iranian economy does not amount to a quarter of the budget allocated to the US military.

Washington determined as Tehran retreats

The tone of the Iranian escalation against Washington with regard to an expected armed action in response to the assassination has declined, although statements that attack the personality of the American president and his allies have intensified.

While the Revolutionary Guards talked last Friday about taking revenge for the killing of Soleimani in various parts of the Islamic world, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei preached of “a decisive victory awaiting the fighters in the Holy War.”

Hassan Dehghan, military advisor to Khamenei, said, “The only thing that can end this stage is for the Americans to receive an equal blow to their strike.”

In an interview with CNN, Dehghan said, “Our leadership has officially announced that we have never sought war, and we will not seek it.”

While Tehran’s defensive tone seemed more than offensive, the former Iranian defense minister said that it is highly unlikely that America would dare attack his country, according to the Mehr news agency.

Iran’s retreat came after Trump responded with the utmost decisiveness to Tehran threating to avenge Soleimani militarily and specifying 35 American targets. The US president replied by saying that he has 52 important targets in Iran that will be destroyed if the latter takes any action against American interests.

After those stern US assertions, the Iranian propaganda machine changed its talk about Trump, who it had accused of feebleness and cowardice, describing him as “reckless and insane” and that he “does not know international law and does not recognize the laws of the United Nations.” Iranian television offered a reward of $80 million to those who bring it his head, while Lebanon’s terrorist Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said, “Soleimani’s shoes are better than Trump’s.”

On Sunday, January 5, Tehran resorted to announcing that it had abandoned all restrictions on its nuclear activities under the nuclear agreement concluded in July 2015. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi announced that the killing of Soleimani caused “some amendments to the resolution,” which came as a non-military response to the assassination.

In a joint statement on Sunday, January 5, the leaders of Germany, France and Britain warned that “these measures contradict the agreement,” and German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Monday that Iran’s announcement of its abandonment of restrictions on uranium enrichment activity could be the first step towards ending the agreement.

Fear also prevailed within the United States that Trump would escalate militarily against Tehran, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that Congress would vote this week on a draft resolution aimed at limiting the president’s military powers toward Iran.