Three reasons prevent declared Turkish presence in Libya

Sarah Rashad

While a state of anticipation dominates the regional arena in general and the Turkish in particular, pending the outcome of the Turkish parliament session, scheduled for Thursday, January 2, 2020, to discuss a memorandum on a mandate to send soldiers to Libya, the issue of sending Ankara military forces to the Libyan capital remains remote, given the implications that it will entail at the international, regional and local levels.

Although the repeated waving by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his aides to pay the troops in the Libyan scene suggests that the issue of sending troops is settled and about to be implemented, looking at the Turkish and regional political situation frustrates the “propaganda” that Ankara is working on to export.

The first challenges to the presence of Turkish forces in Libya in an open and official manner are represented in the Libyan popular hatred for the periods of Ottoman rule, and the support of a recent report of the Turkish newspaper “Ahwal”, as the newspaper said that the anti-Turkish sentiments are deep throughout Libya, on the basis of centuries of Ottoman rule.

It continued, “Turkish forces will not be welcomed, but will provoke a great anger in the country, such as the anger they faced with Italian forces previously.”

It considered that this would have repercussions on the ruling government of Al-Wefaq in Tripoli, as it allowed the entry of Turkish forces, saying that Al-Wefaq would be accused at the time of treason and submission to the project “the new Ottoman.”

He notes a rise in the wave of Libyan nationalism during the last month, according to Abdel-Moneim Al-Yassir, the Libyan politician, who told the Reference, “Ankara has caused the awakening of the Libyan tribes and families to address the Turkish boast.”

In contrast to the popular rejection, another challenge that prevents Turkey from declaring its military presence in Libya is the Russian position rejecting this step.

Russia has announced its rejection of Turkish policies in Libya, which was explained by observers that Russia may be an unruly deterrent to the Turkish move in Libya.

Moscow, earlier, expressed deep concern about the possibility of Turkey moving military forces to Libya, according to the security agreement concluded by Ankara with the government of Fayez al-Sarraj in late November, and a source in the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Moscow is very concerned about the possibility of Turkey sending troops to Libya according to the Russian “Interfax” news agency.

The Libyan researcher, Muhammad Al-Zubaidi, believes that the Russian position is good for stopping Erdogan, considering that Moscow may be the most appropriate means to curb it, referring to the Turkish experience in Syria and the Russian role in its retaliation.

He pointed out that Ankara is keen on its relationship with Moscow, as the latter is an important source of arms, in light of the tension with NATO, which caused the ban on the export of arms to Ankara.

Internally, Turkish President Erdogan faces a growing wave of popular opposition, against the backdrop of developments in the scene in Libya, where politicians accused Erdogan more than once of risking the lives of Turkish soldiers.

Onal Shafik Oz, the party’s deputy leader, said after talks with his foreign minister, Mevlüt Çavuşo Uglu, that his party opposed the move, adding that “the priority should be to diplomacy, not to be part of a proxy war.”

The party highlighted by Shafiq Oz that what is currently going on “is making preparations to increase the current situation worse”, pointing out that he informed the Foreign Ministry that this “is not right”, and that “sending troops there in this case will widen the effects of conflicts in the region and lead to their spread.