3 scenarios for Russian-Turkish ties after Idlib crisis

Mahmoud El-Batakoushy

It seems that the Russian support to the Syrian army in Idlib has incurred a rift between Ankara and Moscow on the back of accusations between the two sides with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressing that Russia is complying with the Sochi and Astana agreements. Erdogan said he had called on Russia to stop bombing Idlib.

However, Russia’s response was shocking, as its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the activities of takfiri groups escalated in Idlib, citing that these groups have repeatedly violated the ceasefire agreement.

Moreover, Lavrov said his country would support the Syrian army by all means in combatting the terrorist groups, referring to Erdogan’s support to these groups.

Erdogan’s support to the terrorist organizations has been undeniable crime with the Turkish intelligence service meeting with terrorist groups at the Bab al-Hawa border crossing.  Ankara called on these groups to fight to death and provided them with the US-made TOW missiles.

Moreover, Erdogan has given $50 million to Ukraine in light of the conflict between Kiev and Moscow over Crimea. Erdogan said he would recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea. He stressed that his country would observe the situation of Crimean Turks.

In fact, Erdogan’s statements reflect his obvious contradictions. While he is boosting cooperation with Moscow, he is trying to do the same with Ukraine to get the US and European support to join the European Union.

Moreover, Erdogan is seeking to avenge Russia’s support to the Syrian army in Idlib. The failed ceasefire, which was signed in January between Russia and Turkey, has deepened disagreement between Ankara and Moscow. Moreover, the Russian-backed Syrian army is laying siege to a number of 12 Turkish checkpoints in Idlib.

In conclusion, we may say that the Russian-Turkish ties will go through a test, which will determine the strength of the present coalition between the two countries.