Erdogan slobbers over Mosul oil prior to the end of the Treaty of Lausanne

Ahmed Sami Abdel Fattah

Controversy has flared up again surrounding the effectiveness of Turkey’s role in its regional environment, especially with the expiration of the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne, which Turkey signed with the countries that won the First World War.

Under this agreement, the borders of modern Turkey were demarcated, according to which the Turks ceded many lands in Europe, Africa and Asia. State secularism was declared, allowing different minorities to use their own language and preserve their independent heritage.

Although the agreement has imposed international status on the Bosporus Strait, which prevents Turkey from generating customs duties from passing ships, Turkey is waiting for the end of the agreement period in 2023 in order to start drilling for gas and oil in this region. This explains the Turkish regime’s attempt to establish the Istanbul Canal in order to connect the Black Sea to the Sea of ​​Marmara.

Turkey’s future role

With the end of the treaty coming soon, many questions arise about Turkey’s future role in a number of regions, most importantly Iraq. Turkey had ceded Mosul under the Treaty of Lausanne provided that the city’s demographic composition remained unchanged. It is noteworthy that Turkey had taken control of Mosul in 1534 during the reign of Suleiman the Magnificent. The city remained under Ottoman control until the end of World War I, before Turkey formally ceded it under the Treaty of Lausanne. After that, the city came under British control, especially after oil was discovered there. This explains Turkey’s current interest in the city.

The Iraqi Buratha news agency published a report in 2012 confirming that Turkey had threatened Iraq with the annexation of Mosul. The report stated that Turkey threatened to cancel the 1926 agreement that prevents Iraq from establishing a Kurdish state and demands that Iraq preserve Mosul. In the event that Iraq does not adhere to these points, Ankara threatened to cancel the agreement and annex the city of Mosul. Turkey had previously deployed its military forces in Mosul’s Bashiqa camp in 2016 under the pretext of training Sunni militias to counter ISIS.

Because Turkey understands the role that international law would play in imposing harsh sanctions against it in the event that it violates international agreements and tries to annex the city by force. It will therefore resort to establishing militias loyal to Ankara, similar to the Iranian method, in order to ensure that it exerts influence over Baghdad on many issues, particularly the important issue of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region.

Baghdad is well aware of the Turkish ambitions in Mosul. Iraq had previously asked the Turkish forces to leave Iraqi territory in 2016, before Turkey responded by claiming its right to be in Mosul. This led to the deterioration of relations between the two parties, but relations then improves after the Kurdistan Region sought to declare independence.