Iran’s future after victor of Conservatives in parliamentary polls

Mervat Zakaria

The first round of Iran’s parliamentary polls, which were held on February 21, will have a great impact due to the deteriorating situation with the United States, especially after the killing of Qasem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, earlier this year.

Moreover, the Iranian parliamentary elections coincided with an escalating tension in the region, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The Iranian-backed Houthi militias claimed responsibility for an attack on two Saudi oil facilities in September 2019.

The elections were held amid growing domestic tensions and public discontent, following downing a Ukrainian passenger plane by an Iranian missile, killing many Iranian university students.

Iran’s first round of the parliamentary elections had witnessed the weakest turnout and participation since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Iranian Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli said the turnout was 42.6% as the Guardian Council of the Iranian Constitution has excluded many reformist candidates.

The parliamentary polls will result in a number of repercussions if the conservatives win the elections.

1. Escalation with the United States and its Europe

The victory of Iranian conservatives will lead to an escalation with the United States and its European allies. There are a number of pending issues between Tehran and Washington, especially after the US withdrew from a nuclear deal with Iran in May of 2018.

Iran also has been disrupting navigation in the Arab Gulf. The US considers that a major threat to its interests in the Middle East.

Moreover, Tehran has threatened to target US military bases in the region after the killing of Soleimani, head of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

2. Tensions in the region will continue

The victory of Iranian conservatives in the country’s parliamentary elections will also escalate the tensions in the Middle East between Iran and its neighboring countries, especially Saudi Arabia.

Earlier, the Iranian-backed Houthi militias claimed responsibility for an attack on two oil facilities of Saudi Aramco in September 2019.

3. Growing domestic anger

Iran’s public anger is expected to continue with the victory of conservatives in the 2020 parliamentary elections. Iran’s economy has been worsening since the US withdrew from the nuclear deal in May 2018. The economic sanctions have impacted Iran’s economy.

On the political level, the conservatives think relying on repressive methods is necessary to deal with Iranian citizens’ claim to civil rights and public demands to improve the deteriorating living standards. They totally approve the use police and Basij forces, which are affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, in handling protests.

Regarding the external level, the conservatives believe in the necessity of exporting the Iranian Islamic revolution and interfere in the internal affairs of neighboring countries.

The Iranian conservatives also seek to more engagement with these neighboring countries through political, economic, and military collaborations via a number of militias.

That explains why the political participation in the Iranian parliamentary polls was weak. The weak participation is a sign that a hardline president would be elected in Iran’s presidential election in 2021.