Al-Qaeda congratulates Taliban: Signs Afghanistan peace agreement’s failure

Mohamed Yosry

Relations between al-Qaeda and the Taliban are extremely complicated and intertwined. They may appear identical at times, while other times they appear to be in conflict, to the extent of declaring war on each other.  Sometimes the Taliban issues statements denouncing al-Qaeda intellectually and politically, but other times it appears sympathetic to the terrorist organization’s ideas and policies. This and many other factors could shed light on the future of the peace process in Afghanistan, as well as the future of the peace agreement concluded between the United States and the Taliban in Doha at the end of February.

The agreement included preventing any group from engaging in any activity that would threaten international peace from Afghan soil. The UN Security Council issued a statement on Tuesday, March 11, in which it welcomed steps to end the conflict in Afghanistan.

According to the statement, all fifteen members supported the joint US-Afghan declaration on peace and the agreement signed between Washington and the Taliban.

The UN resolution welcomed the Taliban’s commitment to prevent any group or individual, including al-Qaeda, from using Afghanistan to threaten the security of other countries, as well as its commitment to participate in negotiations between the Afghan parties.

Al-Qaeda statement

Although the most prominent provisions of the peace agreement in Afghanistan prevent the activities of terrorist groups, al-Qaeda issued a statement on Thursday, March 12, in which it congratulated the Taliban on the peace agreement, considering it a victory for al-Qaeda against the US forces, as the agreement forces the US forces to withdraw from Afghanistan.

According to the statement, the agreement is a fulfillment of a claim by Mullah Omar, the Taliban’s former spiritual leader who died in 2013, in which he had said, “God promised us victory, and Bush promised us defeat. The world will see which of these two promises will be fulfilled.”

The statement went on to congratulate the “Commander of the Faithful” Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada, the current Taliban leader.

Intertwined relationship

Al-Qaeda’s statement reflects the extent of the strong relations between it and the Taliban. However, al-Qaeda does not pay attention to the provisions of the Doha agreement, and it does not receive blank approval from the Taliban in every facet. This view does not bother with the possibility of the American side’s commitment to the terms of the agreement, which requires the withdrawal of US forces within 14 months of the anticipated agreement, indicating the failure of the agreement before it enters into force.

The relationship between the Taliban and al-Qaeda makes it difficult for the Afghan movement to abandon the terrorist organization. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri had previously issued an audio recording on May 26, 2016, in which he declared the highest level of support for the Taliban and pledged allegiance to Akhundzada after his predecessor, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, was killed in a US strike.

Multiple factions

While al-Qaeda congratulated the Taliban on the agreement, there is a lack of consensus within both the movement and the terrorist organization regarding it, which first appeared the day after the signing of the agreement with the failure of negotiations. There have been many clashes between Taliban elements and both the Afghan government forces and US forces. During the first week of the signing of the agreement, more than 50 attacks from these parties resulted in dozens of victims in Afghanistan.

It is a mistake to consider the Taliban movement as one faction or that its peace negotiations with the United States will trickle down to all elements. It is well known that there is a wing that categorically refuses to even think about shaking hands with American side or reaching a peace agreement with them. It believes that sitting at the negotiating table is a violation of the religion, the concept of loyalty and the innocence of the movement. This wing also has methodological and organizational differences with the wing of Akhundzada, who reached the final agreement with the United States.

For example, the Haqqani Network includes huge numbers of fighters that exceed the numbers of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, and it has a large group of educational and training entities for fighters. The group follows a similar approach as al-Qaeda that is hostile to the US presence, and it has a significant impact on the ongoing conflict in the country, which was previously confirmed by UN Security Council reports.