Analysis: 3 scenarios over Ankara agreement and European Union on refugees

Mouaz Mohammad

A spokesman for Charles Michel, President of the European Union, confirmed that the latter will meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Monday 9 March 2020 in Brussels, and he will accompany President of the European Commission.

The meeting will focus on matters relating to the European Union and Turkey, including in the foremost immigration and the situation in Syria.

Earlier, Erdogan made it clear that the meeting would revolve around several issues, including the Refugee Agreement and the situation in Syria, expressing his hope that his country would receive more support from the international community.

Looking at the current situation, it is clear that there are some scenarios in which the meeting could come out: –

The first scenario

It might be agreed to stop sending the refugees by Turkey to the Greek border, in exchange for paying more money to Ankara to stop the barrier without reaching the old continent.

In 2016, the Immigration and Refugee Agreement between Ankara and the European Union stipulated that Turkey work to prevent the migration of refugees to Europe via Greece, in exchange for 6 billion euros from the European Union to improve the conditions of refugees in Turkey.

However, on 23 January 2020, Turkish Foreign Minister Mouloud Cawushoglu announced that the European Union had not paid half of the funds that he pledged to give to Ankara, as part of an agreement to tackle the Syrian refugee issue.

The second scenario

Erdogan demands the European Union to stand with him in the battle he is fighting in Idlib against the Syrian Arab Army, with assistance from Russia, but this is relatively unlikely, especially as this will make the continent of Al-Ajjur in direct confrontation with Moscow, which is a major partner in the crisis.

The third scenario

The meeting may not result in an agreement between the European Union and Ankara, especially since Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insists on being in Idlib, Syria, to secure his borders, according to him, and in return it is not in the interest of Europe to wage war against Russia, with a party accustomed to the policy of “provocation” against it to achieve its goals.

The lack of agreement means that Turkey will continue to send more refugees to the Greek borders, and accumulate them in the region between Ankara and Athens, in light of the latter’s refusal to receive them, which may directly affect tourism in the Greek islands located in the Aegean Sea.