Turkey ignites agitated conflict circle in Idlib

Nora Bendary

The Syrian north has become a battleground for Turkish and Russian conflict, as well as Iranian influence.

Ankara, Moscow and Tehran have been seeking to move the other from Idlib in order to achieve many gains by controlling the areas in northern Syria.

Turkey is striving to topple the Syrian regime by supporting armed terrorist groups, while Russia supports the Syrian regime and attacking terrorist groups, on the other hand, Iran plays with the Lebanese Hezbollah card, claiming that its presence in Idlib comes to protect the Lebanese border from the infiltration of terrorist organizations.

In the continuation of the Turkish attacks on Idlib, on January 28, 2020, Turkish forces attacked Hezbollah members, killing nine members and wounding 30 others. Among them was a prominent militia leader, Sayyid Ali Zanjani, who was killed after the Turkish military struck the Syrian military and Hezbollah in the northern countryside of the Idlib Governorate. The Iranian Fars News Agency described him as one of the “protectors of shrines” in Syria.

Tehran issued a statement this month to warn the Turkish forces against continuing their attacks on Idlib; and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called after holding phone talks with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to hold a summit to talk about the Syrian situation and try to solve the crisis in Idlib by political means.

In the statement of the Iranian warning issued by the Iranian military adviser in Syria, and published by the Iranian news agency, Turkey called for arbitration of reason and taking into consideration the interests of the Syrian and Turkish people; the advisory even announced that it had issued orders to its forces not to respond to the Turkish military in Idlib.

The Iranian military advisory affirmed that Turkish soldiers in Idlib are within the range of its military forces, calling on the Turkish military to pressure their political leaders not to spill blood on Syrian lands.

The fact that Iran and Turkey are allies who share common interests, the situation raises questions regarding whether the two countries will engage in military confrontations and whether Tehran will stand with the Syrian regime against Turkey.

To answer these questions, it must be pointed out that the recent developments in Idlib revealed the level of influence reached by Iran’s allies near the Turkish border, and its implications for the relations between Tehran and Turkey; especially since Hezbollah and the Iranian militia in Syria are doing their maximum efforts to support Iranian influence through presence on the ground.

This may lead to the entry of pro-Iranian forces into a possible field of confrontation with Turkey, which will lead to strained relations between Ankara and Tehran, but at the same time Tehran is making efforts to continue relations with Turkey, given the US blockade imposed on the Iranian regime as a result of the US sanctions.

Hisham Al-Najjar, a researcher specializing in the affairs of Islamic groups, told The Reference in an interview that there are several scenarios about what is happening in Syria between Turkey and Iran because their interests clashed and conflicted as the Syrian crisis began reaching an end.

He also pointed out that the Turks are in real trouble and cannot meet and establish an alliance based on permanent credibility, not with NATO and the Americans nor with the Russians, and there are attempts to attract Turkey to an Iranian-Syrian-Turkish consensus in the face of the growing Russian influence.

He also added that Moscow led the operations carried out by the Syrian Arab Army to restore strategic cities from the terrorist militias backed by Ankara, as it represents a threat to its security and influence in the region, and this is what the Turks and Iranians reject; and for this Iran is trying to get close to Turkey and persuade it to hold a tripartite understanding between Ankara, Damascus and Tehran to adjust the situation in favor of the two regional powers in Syria at the expense of the Russian gains.