Corona in Iran vs US: Another war on sidelines of the pandemic

Ahmed Sami Abdel-Fattah

Months ago, many expected Iran would fall prey to the demons of the regime’s lies and misinformation while Covid-19 cases were increasing rapidly, as the government lacked the credibility and ability to effectively combat the corona virus.

Some observers believed that a crisis could arise that would force a renegotiation of the relationship between citizens and the state.

The shadow war that has lasted 40 years between the United States and Iran was not devoid of revolution, but was about to enter a new stage at a time when Iran is reeling from the pressure of the pandemic.

Although Tehran was shaken, it did not fall, which confirms the difficulty in predicting politics in authoritarian countries, as politics in Iran follows its own path and timetables. But at the same time, it is difficult to deny that the corona pandemic has shaken Iran’s permanent stance of opposition against the United States.

The economic and political turmoil that the pandemic has unleashed, the damage it has caused to the credibility of the United States, and the way it has distracted Americans from looking at how they think of their country’s global role has created opportunities for Iran, China, and other countries seeking to change the present world order.

While Iran’s response to the virus has been disastrous, the United States has not fared much better. Despite Iran’s numbers likely being distorted and higher than reported, the United States appears to be much worse off. According to Johns Hopkins University, Iran has experienced 17 deaths per 100,000 people, while the United States has nearly 43 deaths, and Iran recorded 337 infections per 100,000 people, while the United States has recorded 1,160 infections.

It seems that many Americans feel uncomfortable but not upset with the high number of casualties. As pressure increases to reopen the economy despite the increasing number of cases, it is expected that the pandemic will have an increased impact on the US economy and an indirect impact on government funding at the national, state, and local levels.

The politicization of the pandemic amid a presidential campaign has further polarized Americans and has exacerbated tensions between national, state and local governments. These tensions are likely to increase as state and local tax revenues shrink and resources available for public services decrease. Trust and confidence in the federal government had already been on a steady decline since the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks. Even before the corona crisis, trust in the government stood at just 17%.

The failure of the US government to mobilize state and local governments to adopt a unified policy has led to more deaths, which is evidence that the US government’s effectiveness may have reached a tipping point and is declining. While this encourages adversaries of the United States, it is extremely troublesome for America’s partners. With the variability in the United States and its lack of stability, they face a more chaotic and dangerous world.

Although it is true that America’s adversaries are struggling with their own problems due to the corona virus, a weakened United States opens the door for them to take advantage of its decline on the international level. While the Cold War took on an ideological dimension, it could return again, as the ideology does not die.

“We will bury you,” former Soviet Union Premier Nikita Khrushchev told Western diplomats in 1956. Around the same time, China adopted the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, which remained a calming slogan, before China adopted the more assertive policy it holds today. Despite its resolute policies, China does not seek to fight the United States ideologically or militarily. Rather, what it seeks is more freedom in pursuing its own interests with one mindset, regardless of the effects of those interests on the United States. The measures taken by China in the South China Sea, on India’s borders, and in Central Asia are a warning of what is to come.

Another example is China’s pursuit of closer ties with Iran in recent months. This effort enhances the interests of China and Iran simultaneously, and by this, China manifests its challenge to the United States, especially as the United States is trying to tighten the screws on Iran. For Iran, the Chinese relations form an escape hatch from sanctions and shield Tehran against American aggression. Both China and Iran share the desire to limit Washington’s influence globally.

The US government’s poor performance and inability to combat the corona pandemic compared to a country like Iran will certainly take a bite out of the prestige of the United States. This will also push America’s partners to consider the very real possibility of what the world might look like without a major US role, so most of them are doing everything in their power to restore this role, as they do not want to face the world alone. This offers an opportunity for whoever wins the US presidential election in November, and the future president should seize it.