Questions about Moscow’s role in the Libyan crisis

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will today hold talks in Moscow with his Algerian counterpart, Sabri Boukadoum. The meeting will focus on bilateral relations and long-term joint initiatives between the two countries.

Moscow and Algiers had signed a Declaration on Strategic Partnership in 2001 to establish a practice of joint development, which culminated in a 2019 turnover of $3.4 billion through economic, military and technical collaboration. Russia—which supplied the Algerian military with approximately two-thirds of its weaponry between 2014 and 2018—views Algeria as an increasingly important partner vis-à-vis trade and regional stability, and will seek to maintain long-term influence within its borders.

Expect Russia to pursue a renewal of its arms contracts and similarly bankable investment opportunities. Algeria’s domestic energy and automotive industries could be the focus of future strategic partnerships, given the history of joint pipeline development between leading Russian energy companies and Algeria’s state-controlled hydrocarbons company, Sonatrach.

Both Moscow and Algiers will likely leverage their mediating potential to push for progress on the Libyan front, as securing the 600-mile-long border between Libya and Algeria has proved exceedingly costly during COVID-19 and the correlated shortfall in oil revenues.