Black Sea illusions: Why is Turkey courting its Persian ally?

Nora Bandari

The Turkish and Iranian allies have cooperated over the past years in various fields, which has contributed to the spread of terrorism and extremism in different countries around the world. But it seems that there are hidden goals behind Turkey seeking to attract and court its Persian ally by increasing cooperation in the field of gas, as Ankara announced on August 21 its discovery of gas fields in the Black Sea, which Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan described as the largest natural gas field in his country’s history.

However, questions were raised when Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, also the son-in-law of Erdogan, announced during an interview with NTV on August 25 that the gas discovered in the Black Sea will contribute to more cooperation with both Russia and Iran, adding that Ankara seeks more cooperation with the two countries in the coming years, referring to the two countries standing by his country at its most difficult times.

Paying the Iranian gas bill

By courting Iran, Turkey seeks to complete its activities in the discovered gas field in the Black Sea, which according to economists requires up to $30 billion to build an infrastructure for production and supplies, while obtaining the gas would take up to ten years to reach the production stage. But because the Turkish economy is suffering from several crises, in addition to the collapse of the Turkish lira, Ankara will not be able to pay the bill for exorbitant energy imports from Russia, Iran and Qatar, which has burdened the Turkish economy for several years and pushed it to the brink of abyss.

Therefore, Ankara may ask its Iranian ally for two things. The first is that Tehran provide Turkey with the necessary money to help extract gas from the Black Sea, and the second, which is more likely, is for Iran to allow Turkey not to pay the bill for its Iranian gas exports obtained over recent years in return for Tehran obtaining a percentage of the imports of the discovered gas in the Black Sea.

Repercussions of Iranian-Turkish cooperation

Tehran is a major supplier of gas and oil to Ankara. According to the latest statistics issued by the Iranian Ministry of Oil, the ability to export gas to Turkey amounts to 10 billion cubic meters annually, according to a deal signed between the two countries that expires in about five years. This is despite US sanctions targeting the oil sectors in Iran.

Ankara previously called on Tehran to adjust the price of gas and increase exports by 20%, which was rejected. Therefore, Turkey hinted at the time to replace Iranian gas with Russian and Azerbaijani, which constitutes a strong blow to the mullah regime due to US sanctions, as Turkey is currently the gateway for Iran to export its gas.

Cooperation is therefore expected to increase during the coming period between the two allies, in the hope that the discovery of the gas field in the Black Sea, despite doubts by many experts about its feasibility and the figures announced about it, will contribute to solving Turkey’s grinding economic crisis.