Erdogan’s ambitions for Mediterranean gas collapse with Cairo’s logistics and professionalism

Nahla Abdel Moneim

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is igniting a fierce war in the eastern Mediterranean to achieve his ambitions for the gas discovered in the region amid Turkey’s scarcity of energy sources and a desire to preserve its regional position as a bridge for gas between Asia and Europe, as well as to prevent neighbors from taking over this role, especially Egypt, which is a strong candidate to do so in the future.

On August 26, Erdogan took advantage of the 949th anniversary of the Battle of Manzikert – in which the Seljuk Turks defeated the Byzantine Empire – to deliver a speech bearing a lot of political hostility and escalation against Mediterranean countries. He said that Turkey will not give the opportunity to countries that are lurking in the region, affirming his intention to crush those who prevent Ankara from benefiting from the gas wealth in the Mediterranean, Black and Aegean seas.

The Turkish president’s speech included several dangerous connotations, the most prominent of which is the summoning of Ottoman history to confirm his desire to position himself as the person recovering old Ottoman properties. He also hinted at regional neighbors’ loss of their lands in the past, adding that history is repeating itself and they must learn from past lessons. His major rhetorical escalation represents a direct threat to other countries in the region.

War raging in the eastern Mediterranean

According to global estimates published by Russia Today in January, eastern Mediterranean countries are sitting on 122 trillion cubic feet of gas, and Erdogan dreams of a share in this great wealth, but Turkey’s actual borders do not guarantee these wells. He is therefore fighting with everyone in order to take a slice of the wealth, especially since Turkey’s production of natural gas does not exceed 1% of its need, despite it being one of top twenty countries in the world to rely on it, causing Ankara to import 99% of its crude from abroad, which constitutes a burden on the budget and undermines political decisions in relation to neighboring countries’ control of energy sources, especially Russia. This explains Ankara’s desire to balance this influence, and it even resorted in 2019 to requesting the import of gas from Washington in order to diversify its sources.

Erdogan fights with the EU

The Turkish president is taking advantage of his sway over Northern Cyprus, which Turkey alone recognizes as an independent state, in order to illegally explore gas, infringing on Cyprus’ rights in the region, and deliberately disputing with Greece in the Aegean Sea to send exploration ships to the Greek coasts to explore for gas. Turkish ship Oruç Reis is drilling off the coast of Greece, which Athens has objected to, calling for the European Union to intervene in order to stop Erdogan’s encroachment on its sovereignty and borders. Turkey’s activity is connected to the agreement between Athens and Cairo to demarcate the maritime borders between them, which would block Erdogan’s path.

Moreover, Erdogan’s speech on August 26 included mocking the countries that demanded the EU to intervene to protect them, such as Cyprus and Greece, threatening them with demise. His speech also came to respond to the announcement by Greece, Cyprus and France of carrying out joint military exercises in the Mediterranean.

Controlling regional gas exports

Ankara owns the TurkStream project, which is one of the most important gas transmission pipelines between Asia and Europe, as well as other similar projects. It thus plays a big role in exporting crude and therefore does not want to lose this role in favor of any of the Mediterranean countries, especially Egypt, because the latter has the needed logistical equipment and high professionalism.

In this regard, Karam Said, a Trkish affairs researcher at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, told the Reference that this problem is currently of the greatest importance for Turkey, as the loss of its regional role in gas transportation mixed with its scarcity of resources threatens its strategic strength and destroys its political and economic resolve. Said pointed out that Cairo is the most prominent and ambitious country in the region and is currently able to act as a hub for transporting gas.