Robier al-Fares
Without equivocation or secrecy, the Middle East Eye website announced an American plan that would follow the decision to close its embassy in Baghdad, if taken, due to its repeated targeting by Shiite militias linked to Iran.
American list
The report stated that the United States has put together a list of 80 Iraqi sites that it said are linked to Iranian-backed groups that it seeks to target if it closes its embassy in Baghdad.
It sites include secret headquarters and shelters of Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Ameri and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais Khazali, in addition to sites associated with Kata’ib Hezbollah.
The website pointed out that all the groups are Shiite militias backed by Tehran and are part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which under the nominal control of the Iraqi government.
A prominent Shiite politician said, “The Americans’ message was clear. If you do not act, we will act… and allowing this to happen means an open war in Baghdad, and America’s exit from Baghdad means that war is imminent.”
The US State Department has not released the transcript of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s call with Iraqi President Barham Salih, as it usually does when a secretary of state speaks to foreign officials.
Strong storm on the horizon
“All signs indicate that we are heading towards a strong storm,” a senior Iraqi official familiar with the conversation said on condition of anonymity. “The withdrawal of the Americans means an economic collapse within two weeks, followed by a political collapse within two or three months, then a security breakdown and the fall of the government.”
According to the official, the United States is concerned about the possibility of an imminent attack on its embassy by a group linked to Iran before the November US presidential elections in order “to embarrass Trump.”
Diplomatic activity
The day after Pompeo called Salih, Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi, and Supreme Judicial Council Chief Faik Zaidan were summoned to a meeting to discuss the government’s response.
Frenzied diplomatic activity followed, as Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein was sent to Tehran on September 26 to request assistance from Iran in controlling the armed factions, according to political leaders and officials.
According to Iraqi Foreign Ministry spokesman Ahmed al-Sahaf, Hussein carried a “verbal message” from Kadhimi to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani “focusing on developments in the region and the expected possibilities and their consequences.”
Shiite reaction
The response of the Shiite militia leaders bore the character of defiance, as they considered the threat to close the embassy as mere pressure, repeating their claims of independence from Iran and promising to continue attacks on American forces.
“In our assessment, the crisis is fabricated, and the goal is to put as much pressure as possible on the anti-American forces in order to give Washington more space in Iraq,” said one Shiite militia leader.
He added, “The talk about closing the US embassy in Iraq is just a clear lie that no politician with experience can believe.”
Tensions have increased between the Iraqi government and the Iranian-backed forces since June when Kadhimi ordered the arrest of a group of Kata’ib Hezbollah fighters accused of launching a missile attack on the Green Zone, where most government buildings and diplomatic missions are located.
These arrests sparked an angry response. About 14 activists linked to Kadhimi have been killed since then, while others have been kidnapped, according to security sources.
There were at least 34 attacks on the Green Zone and military bases hosting US and foreign soldiers, while convoys were attacked with improvised explosive devices and direct fire.
A former minister close to Iraqi Shiite cleric Ali al-Sistani said, “The bet is now on the back channels between the Shiite clerics of Najaf and Qom. We know that Sistani can make a difference in critical times, and we also know that his sense of the seriousness of the threat will push him to speak with the Iranians and ask them to intervene.”
Kadhimi met with the leaders of the armed Shiite factions and political groups in an attempt to convey the seriousness of the situation to them.
One of the heads of the parliamentary blocs said, “The political forces and the leaders of the factions are still in denial, and they think that the Americans are not serious about leaving Iraq.”
“Despite the statements published by some of those factions denouncing the targeting of diplomatic missions, their reaction is still below the required level,” he added. “The Iraqi Shiite forces have not yet united on a position. If you agree on one position, the Iranians will have to change their positions and they will stop the Kurds and Sunnis from acting selfishly and continuing to inflame the situation and present themselves as the ideal alternative to the Shiites.”
The officials said that Kadhimi, Salih, Hussein and other political leaders contacted representatives of other embassies and international leaders to request their help in persuading the US government to keep its embassy open.
“The European Union and a number of other embassies have promised that they will stay and will not withdraw with the Americans, but we do not think that they will stay for long,
said an important adviser to Kadhimi.
He added, “The diplomatic withdrawal has negative effects on military cooperation and aid. The situation is dangerous and worrying.”
Among the people contacted to convey Iraqi concerns to the Americans are French President Emmanuel Macron, the Emirati leadership, King Abdullah II of Jordan, and a number of members of the US Congress.
A senior official close to Kadhimi told Middle East Eye that the government had expected for some time that it would find itself caught in the middle of the confrontations between Washington and Tehran, but it was surprised by the ferocity of the Shiite armed groups’ reactions to the arrests in the ranks of Kata’ib Hezbollah and the sudden threat by the United States to close the embassy.
He said that the government hopes to delay this issue until after the US elections, adding, “The prime minister has led a diplomatic campaign by contacting state leaders who can influence the American president, and holding several meetings with European ambassadors. These efforts at least succeeded in delaying the implementation of the resolution.”
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