Nuclear talks: Hopes for settlement that would bring Tehran back into international fold

Eslam Mohamed

The resumption of international talks in Vienna on reviving the Iranian nuclear agreement came on Monday, November 29, after months of suspension, bringing renewed hopes for a settlement between the Iranian regime and major powers, which would bring Tehran back into compliance with the restrictions stipulated in the 2015 agreement.

While Tehran refrains from meeting with American negotiators face to face, the United States is represented by a delegation led by US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley, who is participating in the nuclear talks in Vienna indirectly through European mediators.

Obstacles

The talks have encountered several obstacles, the most prominent of which is the disagreement between the two parties regarding the return to the agreement as just the beginning of other arrangements, as the Iranians insist on what the Europeans describe as “unrealistic” demands, such as the insistence on dropping all sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union since 2017, including sanctions that are not related to the nuclear program but to other files such as support for terrorism, human rights, and a return to square one before Washington withdrew from the agreement.

The United States also refuses to be satisfied with returning to the nuclear agreement in its old form without agreeing on other arrangements related to curbing Iran’s missile program, its interference in the region, and its support for terrorist cells around the world.

The parties to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action met again in Vienna after nearly six months to discuss a mutual return to the deal by both the United States and Iran, but the gap gave time for new obstacles to take root, such as the major crisis between Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) due to Tehran’s intransigence with the inspectors and its refusal to cooperate with the agency in the inspection of some sites.

Short-term agreement

The most likely scenario is that the United States will conclude a short-term and limited agreement that freezes some of the most dangerous activities related to uranium enrichment in return for a limited easing of some sanctions in order to buy some time, as Tehran is closer to having a nuclear bomb than it was before when the deal was struck in 2015.

However, limiting the chances of this scenario happening is the fear of irritating US Republican representatives who refuse to make such concessions to Iran.

This round of negotiations is the seventh of its kind and the first after current Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi took office in August, and he is known for being tough on foreign and domestic policy issues.