Somalia facing an Afghanistan-like fate

Ahmed Adel                                                    

The African Union Peace Mission, Amisom, plans to completely withdraw its troops from Somalia.

This portends, however, grave consequences for the African country.

The withdrawal of Amisom troops from Somalia may repeat the Afghan scenario in it.

This will be especially true in the event of a random withdrawal of Amisom troops. Somalia’s conditions are not expected to be better than those of Afghanistan, if it falls into the lap of terrorist organizations or the central government collapses.

According to security and political reports, Amisom failed in achieving its mission in Somalia, namely of eradicating terrorism and instituting full control over Somali territories by the government.

Mission unaccomplished

The Institute for African Security Studies (ISS) expects Amisom troops to withdraw from Somalia on December 31.

This heralds the return of the al-Qaeda-leaning al-Shabaab movement to the scene in Somalia, ISS says in a recent study.

It adds that al-Shabaab has been increasingly infiltrating state institutions, including the security establishment, exploiting the tribal nature of the Somali society.

Twenty people were killed and 40 others wounded in clashes between Somali forces and al-Shabaab three days ago.

The repetition of such clashes piles up pressure on government forces.

The government forces engaged in clashes with the armed Sufi organization, Ahl al-Sunnah wal Jama’a, in Galmudug State in central Somalia this month.

Amisom was involved in fighting al-Shabaab as well in support of the government forces. The mission is made up of 19,000 military troops and an additional 1,000 policemen.

However, it failed in achieving most of its objectives in Somalia.

This brings to mind the failures NATO and US troops ran into in Afghanistan and Mali.