Erdogan’s Vision of a Resurgent Turkey Puts Global Powers on Alert

In the wake of his successful re-election, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sets his sights on positioning Turkey as a global power, raising concerns among allies and adversaries alike. Erdogan’s aspirations to revive Turkey’s historical greatness and expand its influence across regions have shaped his policies, both domestically and internationally. As he begins his third decade in power, the world grapples with an unpredictable leader who has mastered the art of extracting concessions from friends and foes alike, all while safeguarding his own legacy.

Erdogan’s emphasis on Turkey’s Ottoman past and his prominence as an Islamist leader have positioned him as a competitor to Saudi Arabia and Iran for influence over the Muslim community worldwide. He has worked to extend Turkey’s political sway in the Middle East and Central Asia, bolstered the country’s weapons industry, and played pivotal roles in the conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and the crisis surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

While Erdogan’s consolidation of power and his ability to weather domestic crises have solidified his position, concerns about his approach and its limitations loom large. Turkey’s economic challenges, including a slumping currency and high inflation rates, restrict his maneuverability and threaten to worsen. The Turkish lira’s decline and the drain on the country’s foreign currency reserves underscore the economic vulnerabilities that Erdogan must address.

High on Erdogan’s agenda is resolving the impasse with Western allies over his engagement with Russia and his defense of Turkey’s long-term interests. His economic ties with Moscow, coupled with arms sales to Ukraine and restrictions on Russian warships, have raised concerns in the West about Turkey’s alignment with Russia. Erdogan’s actions have also strained relations within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), where he is blocking Sweden’s accession due to concerns about Kurdish militants.

Western capitals worry that Erdogan’s actions could disrupt NATO cohesion, and the issue of NATO expansion is becoming entangled in a complex web of tensions. The United States has linked the sale of F-16 warplanes to Turkey with Erdogan’s agreement to allow Sweden into NATO, while other alliance members are expected to press Turkey to support expansion before an upcoming summit.

Addressing these challenges and pursuing his global ambitions will be no easy task for Erdogan. Turkey’s financial troubles, including a negative balance in foreign assets and the country’s dependence on Russia and Gulf countries for funding, compound his predicament. While Erdogan has recently restored ties with regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Israel, these efforts alone will not rescue Turkey’s economy. Cash infusions from Russia and the Gulf provide temporary relief but fall short of the necessary measures to stabilize the country’s economy, the 19th largest globally.

As Erdogan faces the complexities of his vision for Turkey as a major global player, critics argue that he lacks a rational solution to the country’s pressing issues. However, his loyal supporters laud his accomplishments in infrastructure development, national defense, and the transformation of the Hagia Sophia into a mosque. For them, Turkey’s renewed sense of pride overshadows concerns about the nation’s financial state.

As the world watches Erdogan’s pursuit of Turkey’s reinvigorated status, the question remains: can he navigate the intricate landscape of domestic and international challenges to realize his vision, or will the limitations and vulnerabilities of his approach hinder his aspirations?