Mechanisms of Russian response to West providing Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets

Mahmoud al-Batakoushi

The United States’ permission for its Western allies to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighters that are capable of threatening the Russian depth portends a global catastrophe, as Russian President Vladimir Putin will not stand idly by in front of attempts to threaten his country’s national security, and the matter will negatively affect Russia’s image as a great power or its attempt to regain its global position in second place next to the United States as it was before the disintegration and collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s.

Tough encounters

Basel Haj Jasem, a researcher in Russian affairs, confirmed that the coming days may witness difficult confrontations between the Russian bear and European countries, especially after US President Joe Biden confirmed during a meeting of the G7 leaders in Japan on May 19 that his country supports joint training programs for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 attack aircraft to secure the advancement of the Ukrainian army according to the American plan. In the event that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis is resolved by peaceful means, the new aircraft will give Kyiv the ability to confront Moscow in the future in the event of a dispute or a Russian attack.

Jasem said in a statement to the Reference that supplying Ukraine with F-16 fighters will have dire consequences and will not go unnoticed, as happened with the supply of Patriot systems and missiles, because the matter is related to the extent of those systems and their threats to the Russian depth. He noted that the Russian message was clear in the words of the Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, who confirmed that Western countries may face great risks if they supply Ukraine with American fighter jets, and it seems that the Russian response by strengthening the bombing against Ukraine against the move of the planes will not be temporary, because Russia is fully aware that there is ample time if the American proposal is serious, as training Ukrainian pilots to use planes will take time and will be conducted in Europe in the coming months.

Biden had spoken to the G7 leaders at a meeting in the Japanese city of Hiroshima about imposing new sanctions on Moscow, while decisions to provide fourth-generation fighter jets to Ukraine for use in battle will be taken later.

Expanding Russian national security protection circles

Jasem believes that Russia may target some western airports and bases, and Russia will expand its national security protection circles in European countries for fear of attacks by American F-16s. It is likely that Moscow will implement its threats to escalate the conflict with the rise of opportunities to supply Kyiv with qualitative weapons of fighter and bomber jets, and it will also work to destroy them, which it has the military and technological strength to do, especially as it possesses advanced military technologies and a compelling air force that can turn the skies of Ukraine into a mass of flames and threatens the European umbrella.

Measures will also be taken to ban officials from entering Russian territory and sanctions could be imposed against some of them, in addition to the escalation of threats to use tactical nuclear weapons, which sparks new frameworks for conflicts.

Western pliers on the Russian neck

Jasem confirmed that Ukraine will use F-16 aircraft against Moscow in anticipation of more preemptive strikes by the Russians on military bases and airports in Ukraine or allied Western countries, as it will not seek to acquire them for decoration or to brag, as was reported in the media by its pledge to Biden not to use them against Russia. He stressed that Kyiv will volunteer American fighter jets as a longitudinal arm in the war and try to threaten the Russian depth to form a force of pressure on Moscow in the next stage of the war, constituting two ends of Western pliers tightening its grip on Russia’s neck, which helps compensate for the Ukrainian losses in the battles.

He added that Washington allowing Western countries to provide Kyiv with F-16 fighters will have a significant impact on the field of operations in Ukraine, and Russia is striving with all force to respond by targeting these aircraft at any cost to preserve its national security and so that its areas of control and its forces are also not at the mercy of the Western air force, as it allows Kyiv to enjoy full control over its airspace and get out of Russian hegemony, reduce the consumption of ammunition for air defense weapons and anti-aircraft weapons that are costly to the economies of the West, and also isolate some Russian forces and the Wagner Group’s special forces within the axes and battlefields, which changes the course of the war.