Iran’s Involvement in the Ukrainian War: Causes and Consequences

Islam Mohamed

There are multiple reasons driving Iran to continue its involvement in the Ukrainian war and support the Russian side, despite the political and legal risks associated with this approach and its potential long-term implications on Iran’s relationship with the Western world.

However, there are several key reasons that have prompted the Iranian regime to persist in supporting the Russians, even amidst their international isolation. One of these reasons is Iran’s high confidence following the notable impact achieved by its drones in targeting important sites in Ukraine. This impact has garnered significant European attention and concern about the consequences of Iranian support to Russia in the Ukrainian war. This attention is likely to encourage Iran to maintain this success against the Europeans’ desires.

The war environment has provided Iran with an opportunity to test and enhance its weapons, making them more lethal and capable of inflicting greater damage when targeting infrastructure in Ukraine. For example, Iran has modified the payloads of its drones to carry larger cargo, enabling them to penetrate armor upon explosion, thus increasing their ability to destroy more targets.

Iranian Support for Russia

Iran’s support for Russia in its war against Ukraine has increased significantly after economic and military sanctions were imposed by Western countries on Russia. Tehran saw aligning itself with Russia at this time as a means to strengthen its partnership and overcome obstacles, particularly in the economic and investment sectors. This support would help Iran compensate for its losses resulting from foreign capital flight and companies’ reluctance to invest due to imposed sanctions.

Additionally, Iran has long sought military cooperation, and its support for Moscow through drone operations on the outskirts of the conflict has brought it closer to acquiring modern fighter aircraft.

Iran recognizes Russia’s importance in maintaining its field position in Syria, serving Iranian interests. It realizes that Russia’s defeat in the war in Ukraine, or at least its exhaustion in a prolonged war not initially planned, will undoubtedly impact its strong presence within Syria. This exposure would make Iran vulnerable in the face of armed Syrian opposition in the northwest and southwest, and it may render the task of reconciling with Turkey impossible. Therefore, Iran is currently seeking to avoid the cost of Russia’s defeat in the war.

Despite the high cost of supporting Moscow, Iran finds no alternative to relying on Russian support for the nuclear agreement and Russia’s ability to obstruct escalatory decisions regarding Iran in the Security Council by using its veto power if the nuclear file is reintroduced to the Council. This compels Iran to provide assistance to Moscow.

War Costs

Iran’s costs for supporting Russia have increased, including the bombings targeting ammunition manufacturing centers belonging to the Iranian Ministry of Defense by drones. Statements made by Ukrainian President’s advisor, Mykhailo Podolak, that “the logic of war is repugnant and makes the perpetrators and accomplices pay the price” have led Iran to doubt Ukraine’s involvement with Israel.

Furthermore, Russia’s support has ignited disputes within the Iranian elite regarding the development of relations with Russia. While the Revolutionary Guard and some figures in the regime, such as the Chairman of the Expediency Council, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, call for supporting relations with Russia, other voices demand the opposite.

Due to the close ties between Moscow and Tehran, the West has been unable to stop the latter from intervening in the war, despite a long history of distrust and competition between Russia and Iran on various issues. During the Russian war on Ukraine, the relationship between the two countries has strengthened, witnessing unprecedented cooperation against the wishes of the West.