Russian-Ukrainian Crisis: Kyiv Attacks, Moscow Adjusts its Position

Mahmoud Al-Batakoushi

The Ukrainian army has launched a counterattack against Russian forces on multiple fronts, under the slogan of reclaiming occupied territories. Ukraine is taking advantage of the unlimited support it receives from its Western allies, particularly the United States, in terms of military aid and financial assistance, making its dream of restoration possible.

Counterattack

The Ukrainian counterattack, which began in early June 2023, focused on several fronts, according to Igor Konashenkov, the spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Defense. He confirmed that the Ukrainian armed forces launched an attack on the southern region of Donetsk, with the aim of breaking through Russian army lines. They also targeted the Zaporizhia Oblast and attempted an airborne operation in Kherson. In addition, they heavily bombarded border areas in the Belgorod region using artillery, providing cover for two pro-Ukrainian militia groups attempting to gain control over the Russian border village of Novaia Tavolzhanka. This was an attempt to distract Russian defenses. They also launched intensive attacks on the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Station dam, causing damage to its gates and surface structures, resulting in a 10-meter rise in water levels in the city of Novaia Kakhovka. This led to the flooding of a significant portion of the city’s infrastructure and threatened around 80 towns and villages along the river. These actions diverted the attention of the Russian army, facilitating Kyiv’s difficult task of reclaiming the territories occupied by Moscow since the start of the war on February 24, 2022.

Dimensions and Implications

In this context, Dr. Bassem Al-Hajj Jassem, a researcher in Russian affairs, confirmed that the Ukrainian counterattack has various dimensions and implications. So far, it has not achieved the desired results, as Russian forces have foiled Kyiv’s plans, unlike the September 2022 offensive when Ukraine managed to regain significant areas in Kharkiv through a surprise attack. The notable evidence of this is the statements made by Natalia Galibarenko, Ukraine’s permanent representative to NATO, in which she urged Western allies, particularly the United States, not to have high hopes for the counterattack and not to consider it decisive.

Adjusting Positions

The Russian expert in Russian affairs further stated that Moscow has learned its lesson and corrected many of its positions that led to its devastating losses in Kharkiv. It extended its defensive lines to over 800 kilometers, which is one of the main reasons why the Ukrainian attack did not achieve its intended goals, considering the losses in soldiers and equipment. According to data from the Russian Ministry of Defense, the losses of the Ukrainian armed forces on all fronts of the conflict amounted to 3,715 soldiers, compared to 71 Russian soldiers killed and 210 injured during these operations. The Ukrainian forces also lost 52 tanks, 207 armored vehicles, 5 aircraft, 2 helicopters, 48 field artillery pieces, 134 vehicles, and 53 drones.

A Failed Offensive

Dr. Bassem Al-Hajj Jassem expected that NATO countries, particularly the United States, will increase their assistance to support Ukraine in the coming period despite the failure of its counteroffensive. This is an attempt to change the balance of power because they know very well that any settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian war at this stage means losing significant parts of Kyiv’s territories to the Russian bear. This is especially true considering the international community’s attempts to propose initiatives to resolve the crisis that are more supportive of Moscow.

And Hajj pointed to the Indonesian Peace Initiative, announced on May 27, 2023, with its key provisions including the establishment of a buffer zone between the Russian and Ukrainian armies and conducting a UN-supervised referendum in the disputed territories, referring to the territories forcibly annexed by Russia from Ukraine. This indicates support for the Russian position. Additionally, Brazil called on the United States and its Western allies to stop attempting to achieve victory over Russia, as it harms the interests of the entire world, prolongs the conflict, and threatens its expansion to other countries, which would jeopardize global security and stability.

Western Objective

The expert in Russian affairs affirmed that based on the available information and the balance of power on the ground so far, the Ukrainian counterattack will not be able to achieve its desired objectives, whether material or psychological. Ukraine and its allies aimed to break the Russian resolve to win the war, undermine their morale, return Ukraine to internationally recognized borders, including the Crimea Peninsula, and remove Russia from the dominant position in the international power equation. This objective aligns with Western aspirations and, consequently, aims to alleviate Russian attacks on the capital, Kyiv.