Ending waiver for Iran oil imports may open Iraq’s doors for Daesh

Shaimaa Hefzy

US President Donald Trump has decided not to renew waivers that allow eight countries to buy Iranian oil without facing Washington’s sanctions.

The White House said in a statement issued on Monday that the US president would not reissue Significant Reduction Exceptions (SREs) when they expire in early May, a move aimed at bringing Iran’s oil exports to zero.

The administration had granted eight waivers, including Iraq, when it re-imposed sanctions on Iran in November after Trump pulled the US out of the landmark 2015 nuclear deal.

This decision, however, maybe threatening Iraq, which has been trying to recover from the war on Daesh.

“Saudi Arabia and others in OPEC will more than make up the Oil Flow difference in our now Full Sanctions on Iranian Oil,” Trump said in a tweet. However, Iraq said that Tehran is an indispensable nation in Iraqi politics.

The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity has said in a statement that gas shipments from Iran will increase to 35 million cubic meters in June from 28 million currently.

“For us, Iraq, we don’t have any other option right now,” Musaab Mudarris, an electricity ministry spokesman, told reporters on the side-lines of an energy conference in Baghdad.

Iraq needs Iran’s refined gas. Iraq’s electricity minister said in July 2017 that Iraq would be reliant on Iranian gas to generate electricity for at least seven years. Iraq does produce natural gas of its own, but lacks the facilities to process it into fuel for local consumption. The gas Iraq receives from Iran constitutes approximately 20 percent of the electricity it produces.

Also, Iran has deliberately flooded the Iraqi market with cheap imports, such as food and commodities, which negatively affected agriculture and manufacturing in Iraq.

The country’s dependence on Iranian trade and public services is largely due to the U.S. invasion in 2003.

When the international community imposed sanctions on the late Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein from 1990 to 2003, next-door Jordan was exempt. The United Nations excused Jordan from sanctions that banned it from buying oil from Iraq, for instance. So there is a strong precedent for exempting Iraq from the Iran sanctions.

If that doesn’t happen, and Iraq violates sanctions and is hit by U.S. penalties, it is likely to place the country further into Iran’s sphere of influence — exactly what President Donald Trump’s administration says the United States wants to combat in the broader Middle East, where Iran is becoming increasingly powerful, according to a report published by Politico.

Iraq suffers from the destruction of the infrastructure, resulted from the fight against Daesh, which has destroyed agricultural lands, oil pipelines and fields, and caused a major water pollution problem.

While the international coalition is trying to confront remnants of the organization after being defeated in its last pockets in Syria, the US decision is threatening of spreading chaos inside Iraq, which would allow Daesh to regroup and re-emerge.

The group, however, no longer relies on territory for its economic survival. In part, that is because its surviving leadership may have smuggled as much as $400 million out of Iraq and Syria. The group’s extended network will seek to launder this money through front companies in the region, especially in Turkey. Some cash could be converted to gold and stockpiled for sale in the future.

There are still anywhere from 28,600 to 31,600 IS fighters in Iraq and Syria, according to information given by the Defense Department to the lead inspector general for Operation Inherent Resolve and Operation Pacific Eagle–Philippines to VOA News.

At the group’s height in 2015, U.S. intelligence officials estimated the terror group had about 33,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria, for a time, bolstering its numbers by bringing in thousands of foreign fighters every month.

Moreover, the existence of a large Shiite sect in Iraq could cause political crises at a time when Iraq seeks unity to complete its reconstruction, according to political analyst Essam al-Faily in a press statement. “These conflicts and crises will open the door for Daesh that will take advantage of the chaos to regroup and recruit desperate citizens.”

According to a study prepared by the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Daesh is seeking to rearrange its rows, hoping to reclaim the Iraqi cities that were liberated from its grip.

British-American journalist Peter Schwartzstein has said there is a clear relation between the emergence of Daesh and poor living conditions, as because some poor areas that need water like Kirkuk and Salahaddin are really close to being recruitment locations for the terrorist organization.

Despite repeated claims by the Trump administration that Daesh has been defeated, US intelligence assesses that the terror group “very likely will continue to pursue external attacks from Iraq and Syria against regional and Western adversaries, including the United States.”

Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats has stated that with the recent loss of territory, “Daesh will seek to exploit Sunni grievances, societal instability, and stretched security forces to regain territory in Iraq and Syria in the long term.”

Coats told members of the Senate Intelligence Committee Tuesday that Daesh “has returned to its guerrilla warfare roots while continuing to plot attacks and direct its supporters worldwide.”

But he also clearly stated that the group maintains a presence in Iraq and Syria.

“Daesh is intent on resurging and still commands thousands of fighters in Iraq and Syria,” he said.