Erdogan in Washington’s fire: Tumult of Iranian oil exports puts Ankara in trouble

Mohamed Shaat

The announcement by the US President Donald Trump’s administration regarding Iran’s oil exports and ending the waivers granted to some countries that import oil from Iran at the beginning of next month did not just pain the mullah regime alone, but was a double blow to both Iran and Turkey, whose imports from Iran amount to about 25% of Turkey’s total oil imports.

Because of the decision’s negative impact on Turkey, the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced its rejection of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s statement that President Trump had decided to stop giving any waiver extensions to the countries granted these exemptions.

Turkish concern

“The US decision to end sanctions waivers on Iran oil imports will not serve regional peace and stability, yet will harm Iranian people. Turkey rejects unilateral sanctions and impositions on how to conduct relations with neighbors,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on his Twitter account.

The Turkish position comes in the context of its trend towards closer relations with Iran and the conclusion of new agreements with Tehran. In a meeting with Turkey’s Deputy Minister of Environment and Urbanization Fatma Varank, Iranian Minister of Communications Mohammad Eslami said that “Turkey and Iran are similar in terms of the cultural and historical momentum of the two countries.”

Erdogan’s dilemma

The dilemma faced by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is related to the alternative announced by US President Donald Trump to compensate these countries after the end of the exemption, where Washington will rely on Riyadh to preserve the balance of the global oil market. The White House had announced that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will work to ensure that world oil markets remain adequately stocked with oil.

Trump promised that Riyadh would work with other OPEC countries to compensate for the shortage of oil following the end of being able to purchase oil from Iran, where the Saudi government announced its readiness to work to keep the oil market stable. This indicates that Turkey has been forced to resort to Saudi Arabia and the UAE to compensate for the amount of oil that was imported from Iran, which constitutes a new obstacle for Turkey in light of its deteriorated relations with Riyadh recently.

The relations between the three countries have become very tense during the recent period, especially in light of Turkey’s insistence on supporting the destructive Iranian-Qatari role. This is naturally reflected in all aspects of cooperation between the countries, especially in light of the escalation of tensions, such as Turkey’s latest allegations of arresting two people spying for the UAE.

All of this indicates that the decision’s implications put Erdogan at a dead end, forcing Turkey to either to accept these alternatives or be subject to the sanctions Washington has threatened to impose. Turkey had benefited from the temporary exemption, with its imports of Iranian crude oil from November until the end of January reaching almost half a million tons, according to the Energy Market Regulatory Authority.

A new burden

International relations researcher Firas Elias said that Turkey is well aware of the value of Iran’s energy and therefore works hard to disrupt the wheel of economic sanctions imposed on Iran, especially as it provides a margin of political movement in front of Russia. He pointed out that Iran’s energy export program will have serious repercussions upon daily Turkish life, adding another burden on President Erdogan’s government.

Elias also stressed that the United States is aware of the impact will have on Turkey, which adds more pressure on President Erdogan to modify the course of his foreign policy towards Washington, especially following from the dispute resulting from Turkey’s bid to import S-400 missile systems from Russia.

Iran’s value to Turkey cannot be limited only to the energy sector, Elias suggested, adding that Turkey considers the collapse of the political system in Iran as a great danger, believing that any future regime in Iran would be pro-Western, adding more pressure on Turkey.

Elias also pointed out that the latest visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to Ankara last week was aimed at finding other alternatives through which Iran would be able to send energy to Turkey with the end of US exemptions granted to certain countries.