Tel Aviv will pay the price: An Israeli reading in scenarios of US war on Iran

Ahmed Sultan

The recent Sadat-Bijn Center for Studies said that the recent period has seen a war of words between the United States of America and Iran, increased by sending America carrier aircraft to the Gulf region.

Iranian keenness not to escalate

“Iran is smart enough to avoid war with the United States,” the center said in an analysis written by Hillel Fritsch, a professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University, adding that it was careful not to bring tensions between the two sides to the stage of military operations.

Fritsch said the mullahs’ regime had long sought to extend the influence of the Iranian state to sectarian control over land beyond borders, such as Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, yet the regime was not reckless in imposing such control militarily.

The worst nightmare

The professor of political studies notes that the Iranians are eyeing the confrontations that broke out between the two sides during the first Gulf War – because of what was known as the tanker wars – when the US Navy sank an Iranian frigate, killed 55 of its sailors, and lost a reconnaissance helicopter and two of its soldiers.

But the worst nightmare for Iranian leaders was in 2003, when the United States occupied Iraq and evacuated it in full in a few days, with the help of the coalition.

Fritsch explains that the mullahs know their real strength, especially since they fought an eight-year military war with Iraq under Saddam Hussein, without Iranian forces being able to accomplish anything. So, they know very well what the war with the United States means, especially with the weakness of Iranian fortifications.

American scenario

The Israeli researcher pointed out that the United States will resort in case of war to target the Iranian island of Kharrak located in the Gulf, on which Iran depends on 80 percent of the export of oil and gas, which is the nerve of the Iranian budget.

If this attack fails, Fritch expects the US to hit the port of Bandar Abbas on the southern coast of Iran, which is a strategic gateway to Iranian imports.

The professor of political studies at Bar Ilan University claims that the United States can destroy Iran, but the mullahs can only target US allies in the region and try to target American soldiers within their bases in the Arabian Gulf, which is supposed to be safe and equipped against similar attacks.

In theory, Iran can order Hezbollah to launch huge batches of rockets against Israel in retaliation for the American attacks – if they occur – but this will pose no threat to the lives of the Americans, because it will target only their allies.

However, this will not be a wise decision, especially as the Israelis might risk a full-scale war to destroy Hezbollah, Iran’s strongest ally in the region.