Syrian refugees caught in the middle of Turkey’s electoral politics

Ahmed Sami Abdel Fattah

Both Binali Yildrim and Ekrem Imamoglu entered the mayoral election rerun in Istanbul with different agendas, especially when it came to Syrian refugees in Turkey.

Yildrim promised to allow the refugees to stay in Istanbul until the war in their country comes to an end. He said the refugees would return if the war ends or if Turkey succeeds in establishing a buffer zone on Syrian territory.

Imamoglu, on the other hand, advocated the return of their refugees to their country. Turkey, he insisted, had received more refugees than it can afford, especially with the rise in commodity prices and the drop in the value of the Turkish lira against the US dollar.

Thorny file

Imamoglu believes that the file of Syrian refugees in Turkey, in general, and in Istanbul, in particular, is a thorny one that must be tackled. This comes against the backdrop of a rise in the unemployment rate in Turkey.

The presence of the refugees, he said, does away with employment chances for Turkish citizens, given the fact that the Syrians accept jobs for low payments.

Imamoglu alluded to the suspension of financial support to Syrian refugees in Istanbul. He said he would use money spent in this regard in improving services in the city.

However, this gave the ruling Justice and Development Party a campaigning edge over Imamoglu. The party promised to keep the financial support as is.

Syrians as a campaigning card

The Syrian refugees turned into an extra load on the Turkish budget in the past few years. A 2016 agreement for stopping the flow of refugees between Syria and the EU prevented this load from increasing. Turkey signed the agreement in return for $6 billion in support from the EU. Nevertheless, the EU has not given Turkey this money yet. This means that Turkey has to fend for the needs of the refugees itself.

Imamoglu will possibly suspend financial support to the refugees, in his bid to protect his popularity in Istanbul.

The Justice and Development Party, on the other hand, will try to delay the implementation of the new Istanbul mayor, being in control of most of the municipal council seats in the city.

Nonetheless, most of the refugees will have to leave Istanbul for other Turkish cities, especially those controlled by the Justice and Development Party. This will be a big problem for the party, given the fact that some of the cities controlled by it have limited resources. This will cause the popularity of the party to drop even more.

Turkish affairs specialist Mohamed Hamed said the latest elections in Istanbul had reflected a marked decline in the popularity of the party.

“They also proved the ability of the opposition to score electoral gains,” Hamed said. “Nevertheless, the opposition needs to unite and overcome its differences to do this.”