Tehran’s elusive strategy in dealing with European mediation

Mervat Zakaria

The Iranian file was one of the main issues on the agenda of EU foreign ministers on July 15 in Brussels, against the backdrop of escalations between the US and Iran in the Gulf and accusations of Tehran sabotaging a large number of ships in the economic waters of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

In the same context, Tehran was keen not to reject the European efforts, especially the French initiative, which was evident in Tehran’s reception of the chief adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron in the first weeks of July, in order to calm the situation.

A number of analysts have pointed out that Iran’s behavior with the United States is consistent with the methods used by regional countries in dealing with the superpowers, through the pressure of nuclear terror and the threat of major powers’ interests, as well as securing some concessions that serve their interests.

Regional states’ methods are theoretically elusive

Some researchers suggest that regional states have many strategies that can strengthen their position on the constraints imposed by the major powers, most notably economic independence, building a strong and capable army in all circumstances, and forging alliances with the superpowers that oppose the forces in dispute with them, as well as to carry out some acts that would endanger the interests of the adversary and send notification of the threat.

The idea of ​​collective security or a regional alliance is one of the important strategies that can be taken in the face of major powers, by restricting them to the demands of regional powers or at least taking into account their interests. Hence, this balanced idea would protect the world from the risk of war.

But it is clear that there is a regression in the theory of balance of power and the emergence of the so-called hegemonic theory that has dominated the strategic thinking of most of the existing regional powers, especially in the Middle East, which experienced great waves of chaos during the events of the Arab Spring in 2011. Regional powers should be allowed to retain their influence not only in the regional environment, but also at the global level.

On the other hand, the regional powers must balance the long and short-term interests in terms of the magnitude of the risk and the expected gains, also in terms of alliances with major powers, while avoiding the idea that regional powers become mere superpowers without discretion even in their own affairs.

European mediation and French leadership

France, as the leader of the European negotiation and mediation process, made a lot of efforts during the visit of President Emmanuel Macron’s envoy to Tehran after rounds of talks that included a significant number of Iranian officials, including President Hassan Rouhani, to ease the escalating situation in the Middle East and Arabian Gulf in general, as well as providing space for dialogue between the US and Iranian parties.

But despite the efforts made by France, both Iran and the United States are still clinging to their own views and rights, and hence there is no intention of compromise by either party.

US President Donald Trump said in a tit-for-tat headline during the presence of French envoy Emmanuel Bonne in Tehran that his administration was determined to impose more sanctions on Iran, citing its accusation of secretly enriching uranium.

In contrast, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s naval forces attempted to control a British tanker in the Gulf, and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to mediate with Iran was met by targeting a Norwegian tanker and a Japanese ship in the Gulf of Oman.

A number of officials also said that the French initiative could be summed up in the “freeze-for-freeze” argument, or calling on Iran to back down from provocative actions and to abandon some of its commitments, the most significant of which is uranium enrichment. On the other hand, Washington should ease some economic sanctions on Iran, especially on oil exports, and the European countries would institute the financial mechanism INSTEX to compensate Tehran for economic losses suffered by the US sanctions.

Limited options

In line with the theoretical side presented earlier, Tehran is trying to narrow the options for the United States and its European partners, in a desire to force Washington to retreat from the decision to exit the US nuclear agreement and lift economic sanctions. Tehran has demanded several conditions for it to return to the negotiating table with the 5+1 countries. The most important of these is the exclusion of regional files, such as Iran’s influence in several Arab countries, including Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Bahrain.

Tehran sees its regional influence in the Middle East as a legitimate right, as well as its position via its adversaries, particularly the United States, and the threat to its interests in the region. On the other hand, the Iranian regime derives a large proportion of its legitimacy from the idea of ​​external influence based in the Shiite political thought on supporting the weak and fighting the forces of evil and arrogance.

As a result of the above, Iran wants to limit the files on the table with the Western powers with regard to the nuclear program only, without addressing any of the other files, especially its ballistic missile program, while Tehran insists on the need to lift economic sanctions imposed on it, especially the third wave of sanctions imposed on oil and its derivatives and the petrochemical sector, which was a gap through which Iran could maintain its dollar liquidity.

The economic sanctions imposed on Iran led to the deterioration of the state of the Iranian economy and a high rate of inflation and unemployment, against the backdrop of Washington’s desire to tighten the screws on all sources of Iranian finance. This was clearly demonstrated by the US Treasury’s imposition of sanctions against Hezbollah MPs Amin Sherri and Mohammad Raad after accusing them of exploiting the Lebanese political and financial system for the benefit of Hezbollah and Iran.

In conclusion, Tehran is following the so-called “long-term” policy with the United States and its European allies to strengthen their bargaining position to maximize gains and minimize possible losses, ensuring that its growing influence in the region is not compromised and its negotiations over its nuclear program limited.

On the other hand, Iran is trying to pressure the Europeans and maintain channels of communication available with them in order to encourage Washington to lift economic sanctions imposed on Tehran.