Return of ISIS: A ghost threatens Raqqa after the break-up of the SDF

Ahmed Sultan

On the bank of the Euphrates River in eastern Syria is located the Arab-majority city of Raqqa, which was taken over by ISIS and made the capital of its defeated caliphate.

In 2017, ISIS militants entered into an agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) for safe passage from Raqqa towards another stronghold they controlled in the Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor.

ISIS left Raqqa, but the wounds they left remained deep in the body of the city, which then came under Kurdish rule for the first time in its history.

From Assad’s claws to ISIS’s clutch

Raqqa was one of the last cities to take part in the Syrian revolution. The city remained loyal to the Assad regime until eight months after the revolution broke out in March 2011.

In November 2011, President Bashar al-Assad visited the city of Raqqa. He performed the Eid al-Adha prayer at the city’s Al-Nour Mosque. He met with the leaders of the main Arab tribes in the city who pledged to support his regime until the end, but less than two years later, in a rare paradox, the tribal leaders were forced to pledge allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and vow to stand with his organization to death.

In March 2013, militants of Syrian factions – Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham and other groups – took over the city after fighting with the Syrian army forces, who did not last long before the militants.

From March to November 2013, the terrorist factions took control of the city but failed to manage things, especially when Ahrar al-Sham took control of the city and began to “boost” its security operations inside the city, which focused on kidnapping prominent civilians from the city.

The city also lived under bad security conditions because of the large number of factions there and the struggle over resources and the collection of funds from the residents of Raqqa.

Management and brutality

According to the New America Foundation, “The terrorist organization took advantage of the chaos that Raqqa experienced during the rule of the armed factions and sought what is known as the management of brutality, and presented itself as an alternative capable of protecting the people of Raqqa and restoring security to their war-torn city.”

But the honeymoon between the citizens and the terrorist organization did not last long, and the security and services in the city began to decline during the three years it dominated the city.

During those years, ISIS took the city as a base from which to direct terrorist attacks throughout Europe, including the terrorist groups that carried out the attacks in Paris, Belgium and other countries.

The ISIS media office in the city also broadcast videos to teach lone wolves how to manufacture bombs and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and how to carry out assassinations.

The organization also used the city to harbor its foreign elements and their families, and to incite these terrorists to instigate attacks inside the United States and Europe.

SDF: a big question mark

In October of 2017, ISIS elements withdrew from the city to the strongholds they controlled in the Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor, surrendering Raqqa to the SDF after battles lasted for several months.

But the Kurdish-majority SDF did not treat the Arab population well and began imposing conscription on the city’s youth and sending them to the front lines to fight against ISIS.

The SDF also failed to provide security and services to the people of the city, threatening the danger of a return of ISIS back to the city again, with the current circumstances being similar the circumstances in city before it fell into the hands of the terrorist organization in 2013, according to the New America Foundation. In the end, the SDF has been put into question in Raqqa.

Since the defeat of ISIS in the village of Baghouz in late March 2019, the cells of the terrorist organization have launched a series of terrorist attacks against Kurdish forces and their allies in Raqqa and other Syrian cities.

The cells of the organization carried out more than 100 terrorist operations within five days in revenge for the alleged defeat and collapse of caliphate.

According to the New America Foundation, the SDF “launched a military campaign against ISIS cells and leaders in response to the organization’s vengeance campaign, but the Kurdish forces’ campaign is still substandard and has not succeeded in achieving its goals.”

The foundation estimates that Kurdish forces will collapse rapidly if the United States withdraws from Syria or stops supporting the Kurds, who control a number of Syrian cities.

It is not only ISIS that seeks revenge against the Kurdish forces. Some Arab tribes in the city also have differences with the SDF, which compete with the Kurdish forces for control of areas within the city.

The foundation explained that the intense Kurdish military presence has contributed to delaying the clash between the Arab tribes and the SDF, but this conflict could explode at any moment if the United States withdraws or stops playing the role of mediator to save the Kurds from the Raqqa quagmire.

Reconstruction: Need to save the city

The New American Foundation said that security has become the main concern of the people of Raqqa, especially with the continuation of terrorist operations carried out by ISIS cells inside the city.

The foundation asserted that more than half of the residential buildings inside the city have been damaged as a result of the long war years, and about 20% of the city’s infrastructure needs restoration.

About half of the city’s population is below the poverty line and unable to meet their basic food and drink needs, the foundation revealed, which is strange, considering the city was described as the Syrian food basket.

ISIS cells are still widespread in Raqqa and constitute a real threat to security within the city, the foundation noted, pointing out that the people of the city consider the current situation much worse than their situation under ISIS rule.

The New American Foundation also warns of ISIS returning to control Raqqa and take it as a base of operations again if the current situation continues as is.