Mervat Zakaria
Trump’s policy toward the Middle East has led to a sharp dispute between the United States and Europe over Iran. While the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal and imposed severe economic sanctions on the mullahs, the EU states believe in the values and principles of diplomacy and methods of international cooperation based on global economic organizations.
A political clash appeared during the European Union’s hesitation to support the United States’ call to form an alliance to confront Iran in the Arabian Gulf, while European countries continue to suffer from unregulated unilateral US policies. Likewise, Russia presented an initiative to the Security Council aiming to establish a stable security system that takes into account the interests of all parties.
The following are the main determinants of the European-American alliance against Iran, and the possibility of its success or failure, with an analysis of the goals of the Russian initiative to spread the concept of collective security in the Gulf, as well as the position of political currents within Iran.
European-American alliance in the face of Iran
The US administration, represented by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, has proposed an alliance with European countries to regulate navigation in the Gulf in the face of Iran, but many analysts point out that President Donald Trump is trying to take a path between military threats and diplomatic engagement, but he doesn’t stick to either. While he warns that there is always a chance for conflict, he urges negotiations, with no clear plan for either.
Despite the strained relations between Tehran and European countries, the latter remains committed to the nuclear deal, insisting that the United States should retreat from its decision to withdraw from the agreement and the commitment of all international parties alike. French President Emmanuel Macron said that the Trump administration had tense relations with the mullah regime, but on the other hand he did not set specific objectives for negotiations and offered no incentives for Tehran to start talks.
Therefore, there is great European reluctance to participate in any coalition led by the United States, against the backdrop of fear of Washington’s exploitation of the international collective action to achieve its own goals of deterring Tehran and forcing it to sit at the negotiating table, as well as reducing any threat to its role and regional influence in the Middle East.
Russian initiative of the concept of collective security
Tension has become a feature of the Gulf region in particular and the Middle East in general, which negatively affects security, political and economic stability in the region and the world, as well as the proliferation of hotbeds of tension and armed conflicts recently.
Hence, Russia put forward the idea of establishing a security system in the Gulf to strengthen the political and diplomatic efforts in this region. The system to be established depends on a set of principles:
- Combining all stakeholders interested in eliminating the epicenter of extremism and terrorism in the Middle East into a single alliance to combat all terrorist groups and organizations under the auspices of the United Nations and international law, including a settlement of disputes.
- Mobilizing public opinion within Muslim countries in the Middle East and other countries in order to collectively address the threat of terrorism.
- Compliance with the rules of international law, including the obligation of all parties to international law, the Charter of the United Nations and the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council in the first place, with a view towards a democratic and prosperous Middle East that promotes peace and coexistence among religions.
- Preventing the sending of peacemaking operations, except on the basis of relevant resolutions of the United Nations Security Council or at the request of the legitimate authorities of the attacked state, which prevents the existence of double standards in the solution of a single case.
- Globalism and inclusiveness. The security system in the Gulf region must be global and comprehensive, including respect for the interests of all regional and other interested parties in all areas of security, including their military, economic and energy dimensions, and should take full account of the need for humanitarian assistance to the countries and peoples of the region, with a view to addressing conflict situations and stabilizing societies.
Multilateralism is a good mechanism for stakeholder participation in the joint assessment of the status and decision-making process and implementation, including the exclusion of any interested party for any reason.
Iranian position on the US-European escalation
Despite Tehran’s detention of British oil tankers and the escalating threats to Washington, it is trying to offer some opportunities to improve its relationship with these parties to calm the conflict, which was seen in the welcoming of the Russian initiative for collective security in the Gulf.
This was also reflected in two successive positions by the Iranian government, the first by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s initiative to ratify the Additional Protocol, which allows IAEA inspectors the largest number of ways to ensure the peacefulness of Iran’s nuclear program in return for lifting economic sanctions imposed by the United States.
Zarif wanted to test the internal public opinion about this proposal in Iran, especially the Majlis (Iran’s parliament), which is supposed to ratify it, but it was rejected categorically by some agencies and internal groups, especially some MPs.
The second position was the renewed calls for negotiations with the United States, especially among Iran’s fundamentalist conservatives. This was reflected in the dialogue held by former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with the New York Times in which he called for negotiations with the current US administration to settle the issue of Iran’s nuclear program.
Conclusion
All of the above indicates the desire of the conservative movement inside Tehran to point out that the call to negotiate with the United States is not exclusive to the moderate trend. A large part of the negotiations that led to the conclusion of the Iranian nuclear agreement was in the final days of hardline Iranian President Ahmadinejad’s term.
On the other hand, these calls refer to the deteriorating situation experienced by the Iranian economy after the departure of foreign multinationals from Tehran against the backdrop of economic sanctions following the US decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement.
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