Pentagon report confirms US troop withdrawal from Syria could enhance ISIS’s operations in Europe

Mouaz Mohamed

ISIS is taking advantage of the US troop drawdown in Syria to rebuild its organization, expand its ability to conduct transnational attacks, and continue to build clandestine terror networks in the region, the Pentagon’s Lead Inspector General indicated in his latest report to Congress.

Published on Tuesday, the report extended beyond its quarterly deadline of September 30 in order to account for the US troop withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion of northeast Syria in October.

Citing intelligence reports, Lead Inspector General Glenn A. Fine was clear in characterizing the US withdrawal as detrimental to the Combined Joint Task Force -Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) mission against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

The death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in late October – the result of a raid conducted after months of collaborative work between the US and the SDF – “would likely have little effect on the ability of ISIS to reconstitute,” the Inspector General wrote.

He went on to cite additional intelligence reports stating that ISIS will probably attempt to free members who are currently detained in prisons controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as the SDF is currently preoccupied by the Turkish invasion of northeast Syria which was precipitated by the US troop withdrawal from the region.

Before the launch of Turkey’s ground invasion, SDF and Kurdish administrative leaders warned they would have to center their efforts and resources on pushing back the Turkish offensive – putting counter-ISIS operations and the detention of ISIS suspects and their kin on the backburner.

A later section of the report explaining the impact of the Turkish invasion on the CJTF-OIR mission quotes Ambassador James Jeffrey, the US Special Representative for Syria Engagement and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, as testifying to the House Foreign Affairs Committee that “if those troops are withdrawn fully, a very important tool we had to keep ISIS under control will be gone.”

While the US-led coalition conducted 47 airstrikes on ISIS targets in Iraq over the months of September and October, no airstrikes were conducted in Syria over the same time period, according to statistics provided in a CJTF-OIR press release in mid-November.

In the absence of continuous US and SDF counterterrorism operations, it is unlikely that any other actors in Syria will continue the battle against ISIS. Syrian regime forces will focus on containing the Turkish invasion rather than combating ISIS, the report states, and their Russian allies in the region are also unlikely to conduct counter-terror operations.

Despite Ankara’s public pledges to combat ISIS terrorism, the report confirms that some of the Syrian militias fighting alongside the Turkish military are ideologically similar to ISIS, and have helped smuggle ISIS fighters out of Syria in the past.

Saad al-Allaq, head of Iraqi intelligence, warned Tuesday that ISIS is preparing for mass prison escapes, pointing to the risk of a return to violence by the militant group, especially in Europe.

Al-Allaq said in an interview with CNN: The Iraqi intelligence analysis of ISIL’s recent contacts pointed to the organization’s possible planning to try to release tens of thousands of followers in prisons and camps in northern Syria.

“The top ISIS leaders, including the top financiers, took refuge in Turkey after bribing their way into northern Syria with bribes, which means violence could return in Europe,” the head of Iraqi intelligence said.